FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

What To Watch In North Carolina Tonight

There are lots of competitive primaries in North Carolina today. Here’s a quick primer on them; for full details, check out my full Democratic and Republican primary previews.

  • U.S. Senate: With the backing of both Trump and his occasional frenemy the Club for Growth, Rep. Ted Budd looks well positioned to defeat former Gov. Pat McCrory in the Republican primary. The GOP nominee will be favored over former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley, the likely Democratic nominee.
  • 1st District: Both parties will pick nominees for this open swing seat, which means the candidates’ electability is under scrutiny in the primaries. Democrats are choosing between moderate state Sen. Don Davis and progressive former state Sen. Erica Smith; this is one of several Democratic primaries where the pro-Israel group AIPAC is spending against the progressive candidate. The main Republican candidates are Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson and 2020 nominee Sandy Smith, who attended Trump’s Jan. 6 rally and has been the subject of numerous scandals.
  • 4th District: This safely blue open seat has become the most expensive Democratic primary in North Carolina history. AIPAC, cryptocurrency executives and other outside groups have combined to spend $3.4 million to help elect state Sen. Valerie Foushee. However, progressives are backing Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam. Singer Clay Aiken, of “American Idol” fame, is also running.
  • 11th District: GOP Rep. Madison Cawthorn has faced a barrage of scandals and embarrassments, including an allegation of insider trading, accusations of sexual harassment, a sexually explicit video and his bizarre statement that members of Congress were attending orgies and doing cocaine in front of him. The GOP establishment is fed up, and some are even backing primary challenger state Sen. Chuck Edwards. However, Cawthorn still has Trump’s support and the power of incumbency, so he’s not cooked yet.
  • 13th District: Both parties have competitive primaries for this open swing seat. Trump and the Club for Growth have endorsed former college football player Bo Hines for the GOP nomination, but his weak ties to the district could leave an opening for attorney Kelly Daughtry, who has largely self-funded. State Sen. Wiley Nickel and former state Sen. Sam Searcy, meanwhile, are the main Democratic candidates.

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