FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

What To Watch In Oregon Tonight

The last state to report most of its results tonight will be Oregon, where there are several interesting primaries of note. For more detail, don’t forget to read my full Democratic and Republican primary previews.

  • 4th District: Eight Democrats are seeking the nomination for this Democratic-leaning open seat. Establishment-backed state Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle looks like the favorite based on fundraising and polling; progressive choice Doyle Canning hasn’t really caught fire in the race.
  • 5th District: Moderate Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader faces a serious primary challenge from more progressive attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner. Schrader voted against Biden’s coronavirus relief package but still enjoys the president’s endorsement. Five Republicans are also running in case there’s an opening come November in this D+3 seat. Based on fundraising, former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer and energy investor Jimmy Crumpacker are the top candidates. Chavez-DeRemer would be Oregon’s first Hispanic member of Congress.
  • 6th District: This is a brand-new seat created by redistricting, so both parties’ primaries are wide open. Cryptocurrency magnate Sam Bankman-Fried has dropped a whopping $11.4 million on the Democratic primary to help elect attorney Carrick Flynn, who shares his philosophy of “effective altruism” and preventing future pandemics. However, this has cheesed off the other Democrats in the race, who include three women of color with more political experience. State Rep. Andrea Salinas, who is endorsed by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, appears to be Flynn’s main competition. For Republicans, logistics executive Mike Erickson is the top fundraiser in a field full of moderate candidates.
  • Governor: Unpopular Democratic Gov. Kate Brown is retiring, leaving behind a wide-open race for both parties. Former state House Speaker Tina Kotek and state Treasurer Tobias Read are the leading Democrats; Kotek would be the nation’s first openly lesbian governor. The biggest names on the GOP side are former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan, former Oregon GOP Chair Bob Tiernan and 2016 nominee Bud Pierce. However, Sandy Mayor Stan Pulliam could stand out since he is running the most explicitly pro-Trump campaign.

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