Could Kathy Barnette Pull Off An Upset In Pennsylvania’s GOP Senate Primary?
In the lead-up to Pennsylvania’s GOP primary for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat, a political novice without much money has suddenly emerged as a viable contender, triggering attacks from former President Donald Trump along with both of her major Republican challengers.
Once written off as yet another “ultra-MAGA” candidate, Kathy Barnette has reaped the benefits of a last-minute surge. Boosted by GOP grassroots efforts, the Army Reserve veteran and political commentator now appears to be in a dead heat with two competitors: cardiothoracic surgeon and television personality Mehmet Oz and former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick. Limited polling shows a tight race between the three Republicans, including a Fox New poll released last week that had Oz leading with 22 percent support, McCormick at 20 percent and Barnette at 19 percent. (These results are all within the poll’s margin of error of 3 percentage points.)
Barnette’s splash was late, and arguably occurred following the release of a campaign ad in which she discussed how she was conceived after her mother was raped at 11 years old. The video has struck a nerve with primary voters in the state, especially as the fate of Roe v. Wade hangs in limbo. According to Axios, Trump ally Steve Bannon referred to Barnette as an “audience favorite” on his podcast.
To be sure, there are plenty of factors (including her limited fundraising) working against her. But even against the Trump-backed Oz, there’s reason to believe that Barnette, a Black woman, could appeal to primary voters in the state. That’s because, as FiveThirtyEight contributors Hakeem Jefferson and Michael Tesler wrote last fall, white voters with conservative views on race might be willing to look past Barnette’s race if they feel like she won’t disrupt the country’s existing racial hierarchy. Moreover, Barnette’s embrace of Republican ideology might help reassure even racially prejudiced white voters in the state that, unlike a Black Democrat, she’s not going to be overly supportive of issues important to Black voters.
And Barnette so far has proven her commitment to upholding GOP values: Beyond promoting her views as a staunch anti-abortion advocate, she’s also echoed Trump’s baseless claims about election fraud and its alleged impact on her own 2020 congressional election (which she lost).
Still, Barnette’s rise has brought with it a wave of criticism from her GOP rivals and even Trump himself. In a recent statement, the former president said that Barnette is certain to fail in the fall if she is the party’s nominee to succeed retiring Sen. Pat Toomey. What’s working in her favor though, beyond support from grassroots supporters, is that she also recently snagged the backing of notable conservative groups, like the Club for Growth (which said it would spend $2 million on TV ads for her).