What Went Down During The May 17 Primary Elections

North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn has established quite the reputation as a rabble-rousing lawmaker; and as such, his confrontational, and often unconventional, politicking has earned him a competitive primary election tonight.

Polling, for instance, suggests that Cawthorn’s reelection bid might be an uphill climb. According to an April poll from the GOPAC Election Fund, a national Republican group, Cawthorn’s support among likely GOP primary voters dropped from 49 percent in March to 38 percent in April. His main competition, state Sen. Chuck Edwards, was still significantly behind Cawthorn at 21 percent support, but Cawthorn’s popularity at home has clearly taken a hit. In that same poll, Cawthorn’s favorability fell from 64 percent in March to just 51 percent last month, while his approval ratings similarly slid from 66 percent to 54 percent.

Part of the reason for Cawthorn’s precarious position is because he’s been mired in scandal — arguably since he was first elected in 2020. And Cawthorn has continued to grab headlines in the lead-up to Tuesday: In late April, the North Carolina Republican was briefly detained after he brought a loaded gun into an airport and was implicated in an alleged insider trading scheme during the same week; and, just the week prior, he was also forced to respond publicly after photos emerged of him drinking while wearing women’s lingerie at a party.

But, perhaps most notably, even members of the GOP establishment want to get Cawthorn out of public office. Many of North Carolina’s top Republican lawmakers, including Sen. Thom Tillis, are backing Edwards in tonight’s race. Tillis’s endorsement came shortly after House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy publicly admonished Cawthorn for alleging that he’s seen members of Congress use drugs and was invited to an “orgy.” (Cawthorn later backtracked and said his comments were “exaggerated.”) At this point, it’s even unclear whether Cawthorn has former President Donald Trump’s full support; while the GOP kingmaker endorsed Cawthorn during March of last year, recent reporting suggests that the president may be trying to distance himself from the embattled freshman.

Initially, Cawthorn decided to run in a new U.S. House district that was considered more GOP-friendly only to return to his 11th District after redistricting litigation shifted the district lines. Given that 11th District still leans Republican and retained most of Cawthorn’s original district’s makeup, it seems, so far, that the race remains Cawthorn’s to lose. Whoever wins tonight’s race, though, will be in friendly political territory ahead of the November general election since the 11th District has a partisan lean of R+14.