With five states hosting their primary elections today, the May 17 primaries are, for lack of a better way to put it, a big frickin’ deal.
It’s not just the number of races on the ballot that make tonight big — there are a number of primary dates where multiple states vote — it’s the fact that it stands to offer a lot of insight into what the future of both the Republican and Democratic parties might look like.
As Jean Yi will write about later on this live blog, this is the night where Trump’s endorsements get interesting. Yes, the majority of his picks are still incumbents, but he’s also stepped into the fray, endorsing six candidates who aren’t incumbents. And in some of the races, it’s a real question of whether Trump’s candidate will win.
Nowhere is this more true than in Pennsylvania, which has both a close Senate and gubernatorial primary on the GOP side. In the governor’s race, it looks as if Trump’s pick — state Sen. Doug Mastriano — will win, as he has a large lead in the polls. But as Nathaniel Rakich has written, Trump’s backing of Mastriano has many in the party upset, as Mastriano supports a number of fringe beliefs, including the QAnon conspiracy theory and efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Kaleigh Rogers will be tracking all of the different Republicans running tonight who support the “Big Lie,” or the idea that the 2020 election was fraudulent.
The Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary will be a major test of Trump’s continued influence in the party — something we’ll say a lot throughout the primaries — as his pick, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, hasn’t cleared the field. Polls there show a three-way statistical tie between Oz, far-right commentator Kathy Barnette and former hedge fund manager David McCormick. Barnette, as Alex Samuels will expand on later, is a particularly interesting case study, too, as she is a Black woman seeking to appeal to conservative primary voters in the state.
And that’s just one state! Not to mention, just one party!! There are also competitive GOP primaries in North Carolina, Idaho and Oregon, which I’ll let others go into more detail on the live blog. But before I hand over the mic, I will quickly summarize the big thing we’re watching on the Democratic side, which is namely one thing: How do the more progressive candidates running tonight fare?
In many of the contested Democratic primaries tonight, voters will choose between more moderate and more progressive candidates. Many of these primaries are for open seats, too. Progressives’ best pick-up opportunity is most likely a seat than in Pennsylvania’s 12th District, where state Rep. Summer Lee is the front-runner per the polls. But then again, one could argue that Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who appears on track to win the Democratic Senate primary, is also a progressive candidate of sorts who has beat out the establishment. We expect a lot of different conflicting signs on this front tonight, but don’t fear, FiveThirtyEight contributor Meredith Conroy will be tracking and making sense of it all.
OK! That’s it from me. The primaries might not get as much attention as the general election, but this is where the parties wage some of their biggest fights, as most states and districts aren’t competitive come November. As always, thanks for following along, and if you have any questions, ping us @538politics and I’ll try to get your question answered on the live blog!