What Went Down During The May 17 Primary Elections
... for real
It increasingly looks like it could take days to project a winner in most of Tuesday’s outstanding primaries, so we are going to officially close up shop here on the live blog. Most notably, the Republican primary for Pennsylvania Senate is too close to call between Oz and McCormick; Oz currently leads by 0.2 percentage points, or 2,565 votes. According to NBC and MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki, there are about 32,000 mail ballots left to count, but considering how close the race was all night long, it’s unlikely that those ballots will break disproportionately for one candidate. Therefore, this race is very likely going to a recount, which is automatically triggered anytime a statewide race in Pennsylvania is within 0.5 points. Several other key races we are watching are also still unresolved:
- First, in the Democratic primary for Oregon’s 5th District, the big question is whether Schrader will become the third incumbent to lose renomination this year. Progressive challenger McLeod-Skinner currently leads him 61 percent to 39 percent, but ballot problems in Schrader’s home county have delayed results there. As Geoffrey wrote earlier this morning, there could be thousands of ballots left to count there, but Schrader would need to win them by a hefty margin in order to close the gap.
- Meanwhile in the GOP primary for Oregon governor, Drazan holds a 24 percent to 19 percent lead over Tiernan with many days of mail-ballot dumps still to come. The winner will have a decent shot at winning the general election given the unpopularity of the outgoing governor and the presence of a strong independent candidate.
- Back in Pennsylvania, the Democratic primary for Pennsylvania’s 12th District is also unresolved, but progressives appear on the verge of victory as Lee leads Irwin 41.7 percent to 41.3 percent. It’s unclear how many votes remain to be counted, however.
- In the GOP primary for Pennsylvania’s 7th District, Scheller looks like she’ll probably advance to the general election, but her current margin of 51 percent to 49 percent is weaker than expected for a candidate who had the full backing of House Republican leadership. It remains to be seen if this means Scheller would be a weak candidate in this swing seat in the fall, though.
- In the GOP primary for Oregon’s 5th District, Chavez-DeRemer leads Crumpacker 42 percent to 31 percent, but again, Oregon’s vote-by-mail system means there are still several days of counting ahead. And if McLeod-Skinner wins the Democratic primary, the GOP nominee has a real shot at flipping an Oregon congressional seat for the first time since 1994.
- In the GOP primary for Oregon’s 6th District, Erickson leads Noble 35 percent to 20 percent, but again, Oregon. This district should be safer for Democrats in the fall than the 5th, but it’s not out of the question that either Erickson or Noble could win here.
- Finally, in the GOP primary for Idaho secretary of state, McGrane currently leads Moon just 43 percent to 41 percent. If this result holds, it would be a notable victory for the Republican establishment, especially after its loss in the attorney general race. McGrane has accepted the results of the 2020 election, but Moon has embraced conspiracy theories about voter fraud.
When these races are resolved, it will make it a little clearer what our takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries should be. For instance, progressives came up short in several primaries yesterday, such as North Carolina’s 1st and 4th districts, but wins in Oregon’s 5th and Pennsylvania’s 12th would salvage the night for them. Trump’s endorsement record is still coming into focus, too. On one hand, two of Trump’s endorsed candidates for Senate, House or governor lost their primaries yesterday — as many as lost in the entire 2020 cycle! But on the other hand, his candidates still prevailed in major races such as North Carolina’s Senate and 13th District primaries. And if Oz pulls out a win, it will be a pretty convincing demonstration of his power within the GOP considering the massive amount of money spent by McCormick and the grassroots appeal of Barnette. As we’ve written, while Trump is still endorsing plenty of Republicans in safe primaries, he is also making some riskier endorsements — some of which have panned out, and some of which haven’t. So far this cycle, 62 of the 65 candidates Trump has endorsed for Senate, House or governor (and whose races have been called) have won. Keep in mind, though, that 95 percent win rate is only slightly lower than his 98 percent win rate in 2020. Even if the cycle goes south for Trump personally, though, his illiberal vision is clearly winning out within the Republican Party. According to our research, at least 28 candidates who reject or question the results of the 2020 election won Republican primaries last night — most notably for Pennsylvania governor, an office that could have the power to overturn the 2024 presidential election.
How Big Lie supporters are doing tonight
Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in Republican primaries in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania, as of 11:27 a.m. Eastern
| CANDIDATE | OFFICE | Big Lie Position | % REPORTING | VOTE SHARE | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenda Bourn | ID Sen. | ❓Raised doubts | 97% | 8.2% | ✗ Lost |
| Brad Little* | ID Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 52.8 | ✓ Won |
| Janice McGeachin | ID Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 32.3 | ✗ Lost |
| Edward R. Humphreys | ID Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 11.0 | ✗ Lost |
| Lisa Marie | ID Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 0.4 | ✗ Lost |
| Cody Usabel | ID Gov. | ❓Raised doubts | 99 | 0.2 | ✗ Lost |
| Russ Fulcher* | ID-01 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 97 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Bryan Smith | ID-02 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 32.7 | ✗ Lost |
| Daniel Algiers Lucas Levy | ID-02 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 1.8 | ✗ Lost |
| Valerie “Dr Val” Fredrick | KY Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 3.6 | ✗ Lost |
| Tami L. Stainfield | KY Sen. | ❓Raised doubts | 99 | 2.5 | ✗ Lost |
| John Schiess | KY Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 1.5 | ✗ Lost |
| E. Lee Watts | KY-02 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 17.9 | ✗ Lost |
| Daniel Cobble | KY-03 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 68 | 4.7 | Trailing |
| Claire Wirth | KY-04 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 15.7 | ✗ Lost |
| Alyssa Dara McDowell | KY-04 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 5.2 | ✗ Lost |
| Harold “Hal” Rogers* | KY-05 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 82.6 | ✓ Won |
| Jeannette Andrews | KY-05 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 4.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Derek Petteys | KY-06 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 74 | 12.2 | ✗ Lost |
| David Flaherty | NC Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 98 | 0.9 | ✗ Lost |
| Kenneth Harper, Jr. | NC Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 98 | 0.9 | ✗ Lost |
| Leonard L. Bryant | NC Sen. | ❓Raised doubts | 98 | 0.4 | ✗ Lost |
| Benjamin E. Griffiths | NC Sen. | ❓Raised doubts | 98 | 0.4 | ✗ Lost |
| Drew Bulecza | NC Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 98 | 0.3 | ✗ Lost |
| Sandy Smith | NC-01 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 98 | 31.4 | ✓ Won |
| Sandy Roberson | NC-01 | ❓Raised doubts | 98 | 26.8 | ✗ Lost |
| Billy Strickland | NC-01 | ❓Raised doubts | 98 | 13.9 | ✗ Lost |
| Brent Roberson | NC-01 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 98 | 13.8 | ✗ Lost |
| Ernest Reeves | NC-01 | ❓Raised doubts | 98 | 1.2 | ✗ Lost |
| Christine E. Villaverde | NC-02 | ❓Raised doubts | 74 | 55.2 | ✓ Won |
| Mahesh “Max” Ganorkar | NC-02 | ❓Raised doubts | 74 | 25.6 | ✗ Lost |
| Greg Murphy* | NC-03 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 69 | 75.7 | ✓ Won |
| Tony Cowden | NC-03 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 69 | 14.1 | ✗ Lost |
| Eric Earhart | NC-03 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 69 | 5.0 | ✗ Lost |
| Brian Michael Friend | NC-03 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 69 | 2.6 | ✗ Lost |
| Courtney Geels | NC-04 | ❓Raised doubts | 74 | 64.6 | ✓ Won |
| Robert Thomas | NC-04 | ❓Raised doubts | 74 | 35.4 | ✗ Lost |
| Virginia Foxx* | NC-05 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 78 | 76.6 | ✓ Won |
| Michael Ackerman | NC-05 | ❓Raised doubts | 78 | 23.4 | ✗ Lost |
| Christian Castelli | NC-06 | ❓Raised doubts | 99 | 36.2 | ✓ Won |
| Gerry Austin | NC-06 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 6.0 | ✗ Lost |
| Marvin Boguslawski | NC-06 | ❓Raised doubts | 99 | 4.0 | ✗ Lost |
| David Rouzer* | NC-07 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 68 | 79.2 | ✓ Won |
| Max Southworth-Beckwith | NC-07 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 68 | 20.8 | ✗ Lost |
| Richard Hudson* | NC-09 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 69 | 79.2 | ✓ Won |
| Jen Bucardo | NC-09 | ❓Raised doubts | 69 | 8.7 | ✗ Lost |
| Michael Magnotta | NC-10 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 70 | 6.4 | ✗ Lost |
| Jeff Gregory | NC-10 | ❓Raised doubts | 70 | 5.0 | ✗ Lost |
| Chuck Edwards | NC-11 | ❓Raised doubts | 95 | 33.4 | ✓ Won |
| Madison Cawthorn* | NC-11 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 95 | 31.9 | ✗ Lost |
| Matthew Burril | NC-11 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 95 | 9.4 | ✗ Lost |
| Michele V. Woodhouse | NC-11 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 95 | 5.3 | ✗ Lost |
| Kristie Sluder | NC-11 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 95 | 1.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Tyler Lee | NC-12 | ❓Raised doubts | 97 | 42.9 | ✓ Won |
| Nalini Joseph | NC-12 | ❓Raised doubts | 97 | 22.8 | ✗ Lost |
| Bo Hines | NC-13 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 32.1 | ✓ Won |
| Renee Ellmers | NC-13 | ❓Raised doubts | 99 | 9.4 | ✗ Lost |
| Chad Slotta | NC-13 | ❓Raised doubts | 99 | 5.6 | ✗ Lost |
| Pat Harrigan | NC-14 | ❓Raised doubts | 83 | 75.7 | ✓ Won |
| Jo Rae Perkins | OR Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 57 | 32.5 | Leading |
| Jason Beebe | OR Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 57 | 11.9 | Trailing |
| Ibra A. Taher | OR Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 57 | 1.9 | Trailing |
| Stan Pulliam | OR Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 57 | 10.1 | Trailing |
| Marc Thielman | OR Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 57 | 7.4 | Trailing |
| Bill Sizemore | OR Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 57 | 3.8 | Trailing |
| Court Boice | OR Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 57 | 1.2 | Trailing |
| Brandon C. Merritt | OR Gov. | ❓Raised doubts | 57 | 1.0 | Trailing |
| Reed Christensen | OR Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 57 | 0.9 | Trailing |
| Amber R. Richardson | OR Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 57 | 0.6 | Trailing |
| Christopher A. Mann | OR-01 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 43 | 68.8 | ✓ Won |
| Armidia “Army” Murray | OR-01 | ❓Raised doubts | 43 | 31.2 | ✗ Lost |
| Mark Cavener | OR-02 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 67 | 18.7 | ✗ Lost |
| Katherine M. Gallant | OR-02 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 67 | 5.1 | ✗ Lost |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | OR-05 | ❓Raised doubts | 45 | 42.2 | Leading |
| John Di Paola | OR-05 | ❓Raised doubts | 45 | 15.8 | Trailing |
| Laurel L. Roses | OR-05 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 45 | 8.7 | Trailing |
| Amy L. Ryan Courser | OR-06 | ❓Raised doubts | 46 | 14.6 | Trailing |
| David Russ | OR-06 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 46 | 4.0 | Trailing |
| Mehmet Oz | PA Sen. | ❓Raised doubts | 98 | 31.3 | Leading |
| Kathy Barnette | PA Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 98 | 24.8 | Trailing |
| Carla Sands | PA Sen. | ❓Raised doubts | 98 | 5.4 | Trailing |
| Sean Gale | PA Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 98 | 1.5 | Trailing |
| Douglas V. Mastriano | PA Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 96 | 44.3 | ✓ Won |
| Lou Barletta | PA Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 96 | 20.2 | ✗ Lost |
| Bill McSwain | PA Gov. | ❓Raised doubts | 96 | 15.6 | ✗ Lost |
| Dave White | PA Gov. | ❓Raised doubts | 96 | 9.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Joe Gale | PA Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 96 | 2.1 | ✗ Lost |
| Charlie Gerow | PA Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 96 | 1.4 | ✗ Lost |
| Alex Entin | PA-01 | ❓Raised doubts | 99 | 34.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Aaron Bashir | PA-02 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 55 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Guy Ciarrocchi | PA-06 | ❓Raised doubts | 99 | 33.1 | Leading |
| Regina Mauro | PA-06 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 99 | 14.8 | Trailing |
| Lisa Scheller | PA-07 | ❓Raised doubts | 95 | 51.3 | Leading |
| Kevin Dellicker | PA-07 | ❓Raised doubts | 95 | 48.7 | Trailing |
| Jim Bognet | PA-08 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 90 | 68.8 | ✓ Won |
| Mike Marsicano | PA-08 | ❓Raised doubts | 90 | 31.2 | ✗ Lost |
| Dan Meuser* | PA-09 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 86 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Scott Perry* | PA-10 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 71 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Lloyd K. Smucker* | PA-11 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 81 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| John Joyce* | PA-13 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 80 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Guy Reschenthaler* | PA-14 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 85 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Glenn “GT” Thompson* | PA-15 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 87 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Mike Kelly* | PA-16 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 92 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Jeremy Shaffer | PA-17 | ❓Raised doubts | 94 | 58.7 | ✓ Won |
| Jason Killmeyer | PA-17 | ❓Raised doubts | 94 | 24.3 | ✗ Lost |
| Kathy Coder | PA-17 | ❓Raised doubts | 94 | 17.0 | ✗ Lost |
Our colleagues at ABC News are now projecting that Labrador has defeated Wasden in the GOP primary for Idaho attorney general; Labrador’s lead currently stands at 51 percent to 39 percent. This is a pretty big deal for Idaho politics, as Wasden is the longest-serving attorney general in state history, having first been elected in 2002. The tea-party-aligned Labrador is expected to be a much more activist attorney general in terms of suing the Biden administration and, perhaps, seeking to overturn the 2024 election in court.
And in Oregon’s 5th District, the incumbent, Schrader, trails progressive challenger McLeod-Skinner by 22 points, 61 percent to 39 percent. But we expect that margin to shrink as we still have almost no ballots from Schrader’s home base in Clackamas County.
In the 2018 primary, about 37,000 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary were from there, so if Schrader can win a large share of those votes (and turnout remains as high), he might be able to catch up. However, the small number of votes we do have from Clackamas have only broken for Schrader by 14 points, so if that continues it wouldn’t be enough for him to win.