What Went Down During The May 17 Primary Elections

Meanwhile overnight, things got significantly better for primary challenger Labrador in Idaho’s attorney general race. Labrador now leads Wasden 51 percent to 39 percent in the race with 94 percent of the expected vote in, so it sure seems like Idaho is about to get a much more aggressive attorney general.

As for secretary of state, McGrane now leads Moon just 44 percent to 41 percent, with Souza at 15 percent. McGrane is the only candidate in the race who has said the 2020 election was legitimate, so a majority of votes have now been cast for election deniers in these two races.

Not much has changed since your late-night crew signed off in the wee hours. The marquee race of the night, the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary, remains too close to call.

As of 7:24 a.m., TV personality and physician Mehmet Oz holds a lead of roughly 2,500 votes over former hedge fund executive David McCormick, with both candidates sitting right at about 31 percent of the vote. (Despite having had a last minute surge in the polls, right-wing commentator and author Kathy Barnette sits in third place at 25 percent.)

With about 98 percent of the expected vote in so far, the outstanding vote has shrunk from late last night, so we’ll be poring over in greater detail where the vote is still outstanding in just a bit. It’s not clear when we’ll have a call — it could be awhile yet — and remember, should the race end up with a margin inside of 0.5 points, state law will mandate an automatic recount.

As for the other big outstanding races — the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District, the Republican primaries in Pennsylvania’s 6th and 7th districts, Oregon’s crowded Republican primary for governor, Oregon’s 5th District and Idaho’s Republican primaries for attorney general and secretary of state — not much has changed from last night; all remain too close to call, so I’ll encourage you to look at our more detailed post from Nathaniel, Jacob and Geoffrey late last night on the state of play, including some of our key takeaways at this point.

A note that we’ll continue to update the liveblog today as we get results.

The race might be tightening in the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary, the marquee race of the night, but we’re calling it a night and putting the live blog to bed as it could be days before we know who won there. (Don’t worry, readers, we’ll be back tomorrow to fill you in on the latest.)

As of 12:59 a.m. ET, TV personality and physician Mehmet Oz holds a lead of fewer than 1,000 votes over former hedge fund executive David McCormick, with both candidates sitting right at about 31 percent of the vote. (Despite having had a last minute surge in the polls, right-wing commentator and author Kathy Barnette sits in third place at 25 percent.)

With about 91 percent of the expected vote in so far, there are still many thousands of votes left to count, so it’s difficult to know just how this could pan out. But should the race end up with a margin inside of 0.5 points, state law will mandate an automatic recount. We might not know who the GOP nominee is at this point, but one thing we do know is that the eventual nominee will face Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in November, as Fetterman won the Democratic primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote.

As for the other big outstanding races, here’s where things stand:

• The Democratic primary in Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District remains too close to call. There, progressive state Rep. Summer Lee holds a tiny 523-vote lead over establishment-backed Steve Irwin. Since this is an open, solidly blue seat, Lee was seen as one of progressives’ best chances to add to their numbers tonight. She looks like she’s in good shape, but we don’t know how many ballots are outstanding and it’s possible Irwin could close the gap.
• The Republican primaries in Pennsylvania’s 6th and 7th districts also remain undecided. In the 7th, a GOP-leaning swing seat held by Democratic Rep. Susan Wild, 2020 nominee Lisa Scheller is just ahead of Kevin Dellicker, her underfunded challenger, 51 percent to 49 percent. The 6th District, defended by Democratic Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, is more of a reach for Republicans, but businessman Guy Ciarrocchi leads businessman Steve Fanelli in the GOP primary by 3 points, 34 percent to 31 percent, with no conclusion yet.
• Oregon’s crowded Republican primary for governor also has no projection, as former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan narrowly leads former state Rep. Bob Tiernan. The winner will face former state House Speaker Tina Kotek, who defeated state Treasurer Tobias Read in the Democratic primary, and independent Betsy Johnson.
• In Oregon’s 5th District, progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner leads incumbent Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader by 18 points, 59 percent to 41 percent, but only a third of the vote is counted and an issue with ballots in Schrader’s home county could keep the race in suspense for a while. At the very least, though, the fractious Democratic primary has Republicans thinking they can make a play for this seat in the fall; former Happy Valley mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads businessman Jimmy Crumpacker 41 percent to 32 percent in the GOP primary.
• We’re also waiting for a winner in Idaho’s Republican primaries for attorney general and secretary of state. Incumbent Attorney General Lawrence Wasden is locked in a tight race with former Rep. Raúl Labrador, while Phil McGrane — the only candidate who has accepted the results of the 2020 election — leads for secretary of state.

But in terms of races that have been called tonight, here are a few key takeaways:

• The Republican establishment was able to breathe a couple sighs of relief. First, it doesn’t look like they’ll nominate Barnette for Senate, which could have given them headaches in the fall given Barnette’s history of offensive comments and far-right activism. Second, Rep. Madison Cawthorn lost his primary after antagonizing other Republican members of Congress with fables about congressional orgies and drug use (as well as facing several scandals of his own).
• It was more of a mixed bag for former President Donald Trump. At least 22 of his 25 endorsed candidates for Senate, House and governor won tonight (although most of them were not in competitive races). He did score notable wins in the open North Carolina Senate primary and North Carolina 13th primary, but he did incur two losses in the Idaho gubernatorial race and North Carolina 11th District (Cawthorn) — his second and third losses of the year so far. And, of course, we don’t yet know how his pick, Oz, will fare in the Republican Senate primary in Pennsylvania.
• One bright spot for House Democrats this cycle, however, has been North Carolina, and the good news continued tonight. In both of the state’s two most competitive districts — the 1st and the 13th — Republicans nominated candidates that could cause them difficulties in the fall. In the 1st, 2020 Republican nominee Sandy Smith narrowly cleared the runoff threshold with 31.4 percent, but she is a candidate with a troubled track record as she has been accused of domestic violence and financial impropriety. Meanwhile, in the 13th, the winner was Bo Hines, a 26-year-old first-time candidate who spent much of the last year jumping from district to district before settling on this one. Biden would have narrowly carried the suburban district, which is trending in Democrats’ direction, so Hines’s relatively untested profile and lack of ties to the area could pose a problem for him in the general. Democrats nominated state Sens. Don Davis and Wiley Nickel in the 1st and 13th, respectively.
• It’s not all good news for Democrats in North Carolina, though. Notably, Rep. Ted Budd easily topped former Gov. Pat McCrory by more than 30 points in the GOP primary — McCrory managed to lose reelection in 2016 despite Trump winning the state at the top of the ticket. Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley easily won the Democratic nomination on the other side, but given that North Carolina is a red-leaning state and the electoral environment is shaping up to be favorable for Republicans, this will be a challenging race for Democrats. Inside Elections, the Cook Political Report, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race as Lean Republican.
• Finally, we might not have a winner in Pennsylvania’s GOP Senate primary, but we do know who won the GOP primary for governor: state Sen. Doug Mastriano. And while this is a troubling development for small “d” democracy — Mastriano led the charge to overturn the results of the 2020 election in Pennsylvania and was present on the Capitol lawn on Jan. 6 in addition to holding a number of other fringey views — it was the outcome that many Democrats were rooting for, as Mastriano’s far-right views will likely make it easier for Democrats to hold the office in November.