FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

If Lee ends up losing, though, she can always go back to her career in the state House.

Nathaniel Rakich

We’ve got to be nearing the end of vote-counting in Pennsylvania’s 12th District, if we’re not there already. According to ABC News, 99 percent of the expected vote is reporting, and Lee leads Irwin 42 percent to 41 percent — a margin of 534 votes. Pennsylvania’s 0.5-point automatic recount margin does not apply to congressional races, but Irwin’s campaign can still request a recount if they want. I’m not sure we’ll get a winner here tonight.

Jacob Rubashkin

In Oregon, the complicating factor for Democrats is the presence of independent Betsy Johnson in the race. Johnson is a former Democratic state senator who was one of the more conservative members of the caucus, and she’s running as a middle-of-the-road candidate in the governor’s race. She’s a strong fundraiser and also has backing from Oregon megadonor and Nike founder Phil Knight. It’s not clear she has enough juice to win outright, but there’s a real worry among Democrats she could split enough of the vote to let a GOP candidate through to victory.


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