FiveThirtyEight
Jacob Rubashkin

Oz, Barnette and Bartos all were listed as Montgomery County candidates on the ballot, so maybe the regional factor actually played against McCormick in the collar counties?

Nathaniel Rakich

In fact, ABC News is already projecting Hoyle to be the winner in the Oregon 4th. She will be favored, but not guaranteed to win, this fall in this D+9 seat.

Geoffrey Skelley

So earlier, I speculated McCormick might benefit as more votes from the Philadelphia “collar” counties came in. But it seems like Oz has now taken a narrow lead in the votes from those four counties, and a lot of votes are still remaining, mostly Election Day ballots at this point. McCormick seemed to do best among early votes, whereas Oz has led in Election Day votes, so this could prove to be more of a boon to Oz than McCormick.


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