FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

In fact, ABC News is already projecting Hoyle to be the winner in the Oregon 4th. She will be favored, but not guaranteed to win, this fall in this D+9 seat.

Geoffrey Skelley

So earlier, I speculated McCormick might benefit as more votes from the Philadelphia “collar” counties came in. But it seems like Oz has now taken a narrow lead in the votes from those four counties, and a lot of votes are still remaining, mostly Election Day ballots at this point. McCormick seemed to do best among early votes, whereas Oz has led in Election Day votes, so this could prove to be more of a boon to Oz than McCormick.

Nathaniel Rakich

And in the open 4th Congressional District, Val Hoyle has a HUGE lead, 70 percent to 15 percent, over the progressive candidate Doyle Canning. Results are still sparse in the other two closely watched districts, the 5th and 6th.


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