FiveThirtyEight
Jacob Rubashkin

Thom Tillis twists the knife in North Carolina’s 11th:

Maggie Koerth

Let’s all take a minute to just appreciate that Summer Lee started out tonight in Pennsylvania’s 12th District down by 21 percentage points.

Geoffrey Skelley

I’ve also been looking at Oz’s areas of strength in Pennsylvania’s Republican Senate primary, and some of what we’re seeing makes quite a lot of sense once you consider that Trump endorsed him. Oz’s best counties include Lackawanna and Luzerne in northeast Pennsylvania, as well as Fayette County and Greene County in the southwest corner of the state. These are places with ancestral Democratic leanings and lots of blue-collar white voters that have swung sharply to the right in the Trump era (although Lackawanna, home to Scranton, does remain Democratic-leaning overall).


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