FiveThirtyEight
Dan Hopkins

In my survey of Pennsylvanians conducted online, I am looking at the factors that distinguish Oz supporters from Barnette supporters. Oz supporters are more likely to watch Tucker Carlson, while Barnette supporters have higher incomes and are less likely to identify as Republicans.

Alex Samuels

It’s still early, but it looks like Cawthorn is slowly catching up to Edwards in North Carolina’s 11th District. Right now, the incumbent trails by roughly 4 percentage points.

Latest count in North Carolina’s 11th District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, as of 8:59 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Chuck Edwards 21,513 35.1
Madison Cawthorn* 18,830 30.7
Matthew Burril 5,552 9.1
Rod Honeycutt 4,126 6.7
Bruce O’Connell 3,906 6.4
Wendy M. Nevarez 3,275 5.3
Michele V. Woodhouse 3,147 5.1
Kristie Sluder 919 1.5

59% of the expected vote has been reported.

*Incumbent

Source: ABC News

Jacob Rubashkin

Nathaniel, maybe we should ask Brett Lindstrom about how predictive early primary night results are.


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