FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

ABC News can now project that McGarvey will win the Democratic nomination in Kentucky’s 3rd District, which all but guarantees that he’ll be elected to Congress in this safely blue seat. McGarvey currently leads Scott 67 percent to 33 percent.

Alex Samuels

Hmm, I’m not sure I entirely buy into the thinking that Fetterman’s past will hurt him with Black voters? It certainly might not help, but since Black voters overall might have to choose between Fetterman and a Trumpian figure (like Oz or Barnette), he might still be able to prevail among Black voters this fall should he win tonight’s primary.

Nathaniel Rakich

Well, Sarah, according to research from political scientists Bernard Fraga and Hunter Rendleman, Democrats have nominated 34 white people, 14 Black people, nine Hispanic people and one Asian American person so far. Republicans have nominated 55 white people, three Black people and five Hispanic people.


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