FiveThirtyEight
Jean Yi

Hines only needs to get above 30 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff, and so far, he’s scraping by at 32.5 percent. That’s better than Cawthorn in North Carolina’s 11th District — so far, Edwards is leading him with 38 percent of the vote, meaning Edwards could win the Republican primary outright. Trump’s preferred candidates in Pennsylvania aren’t doing so well, either. With just early or mail votes counted, Mastriano is in fifth place with just 12 percent of the vote, despite having a comfortable, double-digit lead in the polls. And Oz is in second place in his Senate race, below former Bridgewater CEO Dave McCormick. So far, it’s a mixed record for Trump. He’s notched nine other wins tonight, all incumbent Republicans, but several of his candidates appear to be struggling in contested races.

How Trump’s endorsees are doing tonight

Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump and their results in Republican primaries in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania, as of 8:38 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Office % Reporting Vote Share Status
Mike Crapo* ID Sen. 0% 0.0%
Janice McGeachin ID Gov. 0 0.0
Russ Fulcher* ID-01 0 0.0
Rand Paul* KY Sen. 55 87.0 ✓ Won
James Comer* KY-01 0 0.0
S. Brett Guthrie* KY-02 7 75.1 Leading
Thomas Massie* KY-04 75 74.8 ✓ Won
Harold “Hal” Rogers* KY-05 59 81.8 ✓ Won
Andy Barr* KY-06 29 88.6 ✓ Won
Ted Budd NC Sen. 34 57.6 ✓ Won
Greg Murphy* NC-03 33 78.5 ✓ Won
Virginia Foxx* NC-05 34 77.7 ✓ Won
David Rouzer* NC-07 26 78.7 ✓ Won
Richard Hudson* NC-09 45 78.9 ✓ Won
Patrick McHenry* NC-10 39 65.5 ✓ Won
Madison Cawthorn* NC-11 46 29.2 Trailing
Bo Hines NC-13 31 33.0 Leading
Mehmet Oz PA Sen. 22 22.1 Trailing
Doug Mastriano PA Gov. 21 11.9 Trailing
Jim Bognet PA-08 0 0.0
Scott Perry* PA-10 2 100.0 ✓ Won
Lloyd K. Smucker* PA-11 0 0.0
John Joyce* PA-13 0 0.0
Guy Reschenthaler* PA-14 2 100.0 ✓ Won
Mike Kelly* PA-16 0 0.0

*Incumbent.

Rep. Dan Bishop, who is seeking reelection in North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District, is running uncontested so his primary has been canceled.

Sources: DonaldJTrump.com, news reports, ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

With 20 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for Pennsylvania governor, McSwain — whom Trump specifically anti-endorsed because he allegedly didn’t fight hard enough to overturn the 2020 election — leads with 27.6 percent, while the Trump-endorsed Mastriano is way back at 11.9 percent. But don’t expect this to last. All the votes we’re seeing in Pennsylvania right now are early or mail ballots, which are likely to skew moderate. It’s hard to imagine a Mastriano supporter voting by mail, considering that Mastriano himself thinks mail ballots stole the 2020 election from Trump!
Latest count in Pennsylvania’s GOP primary for governor

Results of Pennsylvania’s Republican primary for governor, as of 8:37 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Bill McSwain 13,867 27.2
Dave White 8,627 16.9
Lou Barletta 6,940 13.6
Melissa Hart 6,715 13.2
Doug Mastriano 6,077 11.9
Joe Gale 3,175 6.2
Jake Corman 2,748 5.4
Nche Zama 1,831 3.6
Charlie Gerow 1,082 2.1

20% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News

Jacob Rubashkin

With around one-third of the vote reported in the GOP primary in North Carolina’s 1st District, 2020 nominee Sandy Smith is running slightly ahead of Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson. That’s not great for Republicans, because Smith has some serious personal baggage. In the closing weeks of the campaign, a GOP Super PAC affiliated with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy dropped a half-million dollars of negative advertising on Smith, highlighting past bankruptcies and accusations of domestic violence. If Smith wins, this is one race that could move in Democrats’ favor.
Latest count in North Carolina’s 1st District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, as of 8:33 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Sandy Smith 7,545 33.4
Sandy Roberson 6,219 27.5
Billy Strickland 2,835 12.6
Brent Roberson 2,676 11.8
Brad Murphy 2,244 9.9
Will Aiken 659 2.9
Ernest Reeves 295 1.3
Henry Williams II 113 0.5

39% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News


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