FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

With 20 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for Pennsylvania governor, McSwain — whom Trump specifically anti-endorsed because he allegedly didn’t fight hard enough to overturn the 2020 election — leads with 27.6 percent, while the Trump-endorsed Mastriano is way back at 11.9 percent. But don’t expect this to last. All the votes we’re seeing in Pennsylvania right now are early or mail ballots, which are likely to skew moderate. It’s hard to imagine a Mastriano supporter voting by mail, considering that Mastriano himself thinks mail ballots stole the 2020 election from Trump!
Latest count in Pennsylvania’s GOP primary for governor

Results of Pennsylvania’s Republican primary for governor, as of 8:37 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Bill McSwain 13,867 27.2
Dave White 8,627 16.9
Lou Barletta 6,940 13.6
Melissa Hart 6,715 13.2
Doug Mastriano 6,077 11.9
Joe Gale 3,175 6.2
Jake Corman 2,748 5.4
Nche Zama 1,831 3.6
Charlie Gerow 1,082 2.1

20% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News

Jacob Rubashkin

With around one-third of the vote reported in the GOP primary in North Carolina’s 1st District, 2020 nominee Sandy Smith is running slightly ahead of Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson. That’s not great for Republicans, because Smith has some serious personal baggage. In the closing weeks of the campaign, a GOP Super PAC affiliated with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy dropped a half-million dollars of negative advertising on Smith, highlighting past bankruptcies and accusations of domestic violence. If Smith wins, this is one race that could move in Democrats’ favor.
Latest count in North Carolina’s 1st District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, as of 8:33 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Sandy Smith 7,545 33.4
Sandy Roberson 6,219 27.5
Billy Strickland 2,835 12.6
Brent Roberson 2,676 11.8
Brad Murphy 2,244 9.9
Will Aiken 659 2.9
Ernest Reeves 295 1.3
Henry Williams II 113 0.5

39% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

Kentucky had a 90-minute head start on North Carolina, and yet still only 8 percent of the expected vote is reporting in Kentucky’s 3rd District. (Meanwhile, several North Carolina races have already been called.) In that safely blue Louisville district, McGarvey is leading Scott 66 percent to 34 percent, which, if it holds, would be a win for the Democratic establishment.


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