FiveThirtyEight
Jacob Rubashkin

With around one-third of the vote reported in the GOP primary in North Carolina’s 1st District, 2020 nominee Sandy Smith is running slightly ahead of Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson. That’s not great for Republicans, because Smith has some serious personal baggage. In the closing weeks of the campaign, a GOP Super PAC affiliated with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy dropped a half-million dollars of negative advertising on Smith, highlighting past bankruptcies and accusations of domestic violence. If Smith wins, this is one race that could move in Democrats’ favor.
Latest count in North Carolina’s 1st District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, as of 8:33 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Sandy Smith 7,545 33.4
Sandy Roberson 6,219 27.5
Billy Strickland 2,835 12.6
Brent Roberson 2,676 11.8
Brad Murphy 2,244 9.9
Will Aiken 659 2.9
Ernest Reeves 295 1.3
Henry Williams II 113 0.5

39% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

Kentucky had a 90-minute head start on North Carolina, and yet still only 8 percent of the expected vote is reporting in Kentucky’s 3rd District. (Meanwhile, several North Carolina races have already been called.) In that safely blue Louisville district, McGarvey is leading Scott 66 percent to 34 percent, which, if it holds, would be a win for the Democratic establishment.

Dan Hopkins

These two maps of Philadelphia — one from the City Commissioners showing the Democratic Senate primary vote so far, the other from Social Explorer showing the share of Black residents in each census tract — illustrate that Malcom Kenyatta is running strong in Philadelphia’s Black neighborhoods. Even with Fetterman’s strength statewide, his performance in Black communities is a key question given a 2013 incident in which he pulled a shotgun on a Black jogger — and the potential for that to be part of GOP attacks in the run-up to November.


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