FiveThirtyEight
Jean Yi

Ted Budd’s big victory tonight — with about a third of all ballots in, he’s at 56 percent of the vote — was by no means guaranteed. When he started his campaign, he was polling in the single digits, far behind former Gov. Pat McCrory. Now, McCrory is the one who’s behind, with less than half of Budd’s share of the vote.

So, what changed? It wasn’t just Trump. While Trump should take credit for elevating Budd’s campaign, his endorsement came almost a year ago, making it less pivotal than that of Vance in the Ohio Senate primary, where Trump endorsed just a few weeks before the primary.

Instead, Budd proved himself to be the rare candidate who performed better with primary and general election voters — and McCrory, who’s lost two previous statewide elections, wasn’t the strongest candidate, either. Despite his previous conservative record, he refashioned himself as the moderate candidate in the race, leaving him open to attacks from the left. But this didn’t make him seem more electable — according to a recent poll, Budd beat presumptive Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley, 48 percent to 41 percent, in a hypothetical head-to-head, but Beasley defeated McCrory, 44 percent to 39 percent.

Budd’s victory was a rare instance in which the party establishment’s interests aligned with the wishes of primary voters. But there’s more races ahead that will likely be more difficult.

Alex Samuels

In North Carolina’s 11th District, Cawthorn is still trailing Edward by nearly 8 percentage points with 42 percent of the vote in.

Latest count in North Carolina’s 11th District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, as of 8:24 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Chuck Edwards 15,966 37.0
Madison Cawthorn* 12,408 28.7
Matthew Burril 3,879 9.0
Rod Honeycutt 2,882 6.7
Bruce O’Connell 2,838 6.6
Wendy M. Nevarez 2,454 5.7
Michele V. Woodhouse 2,117 4.9
Kristie Sluder 664 1.5

42% of the expected vote has been reported.

*Incumbent

Source: ABC News

Monica Potts

Only ten percent of the vote is reported, but Jeremy Shaffer looks like he’s pulling ahead in the Republican primary for Pennsylvania’s 17th District. He’s tried to position himself as more moderate on some issues, and has said he probably would have voted for Biden’s infrastructure bill, and has also said he thinks it should be up to the states to decide on abortion. His opponents are positioning themselves as more conservative, but have been trailing in fundraising and endorsements, and are behind in the early vote.


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