What Went Down During The May 17 Primary Elections

Thinking about moderates winning primaries takes me back to a question I had about what appears to be a Democratic strategy of dumping a lot of money on mainstream candidates in primaries against progressive ones. I’ve got a couple questions there, actually: Do moderate candidates do better in primaries on the Democratic side? And, also, has anyone figured out what the line is that a candidate has to cross before the Democratic party kind of comes out swinging against them and runs a moderate alternative?

Unfortunately, we weren’t able to see in our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll whether more Americans were citing abortion as a top issue after the Supreme Court leak. We were out in the field when the draft opinion was leaked, but roughly 80 percent of our interviews had already been conducted by that point. Only 4 percent of respondents named it as one of the country’s top issues, including 6 percent of Republicans.

Now for a brief recap on a Republican primary where I’m awaiting results!

Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright is seeking reelection in Pennsylvania’s 8th District in what will likely be a tough race this November. His district, which has a partisan lean of R+8, will likely be competitive for both parties this fall. The question going into tonight, though, is who will Cartwright — the one Democrat in the state’s delegation to prevail last cycle in a Trump-won seat — face?

Both Jim Bognet, who lost to Cartwright by 4 percentage points in 2020, and Mike Marsicano, a former police officer and commercial pilot, are vying for the House seat (again). Going into tonight, my understanding is that Bognet (who has Trump’s endorsement and a slight fundraising advantage) is favored to win, but he’ll first have to get past Marsicano, who similarly touts himself as a Trump loyalist.

Of course, there’s some brief history going into tonight’s race that’s probably helpful to know in assessing the candidates: Bognet won the Republican primary in 2020, but still lost to Cartwright by nearly 4 percentage points. And that’s despite Trump himself winning the district that year. As Nathaniel pointed out on Monday, Cartwright’s win that year could be chalked up to his strength as a candidate or serve as a sign that Republicans need stronger general election candidates.