What Went Down During The May 17 Primary Elections

With regard to electability, I don’t think that the conventional wisdom has ever been that more moderate candidates do better in primaries. I think there’s a lot of evidence that they often don’t. The evidence suggests more moderate candidates (or candidates who are seen as more moderate by the voters) indeed do better in general elections. I think that holds, but to a lesser degree than it once did.

We know that candidate quality matters less as partisanship has become a stronger force in politics and state-level debates have become nationalized. So I do think Barnette and Mastriano would do worse in the general than more moderate candidates. That also doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll lose in an environment where Biden is underwater by 14 points.

Sarah, one big wild card going into the midterms is whether abortion will still be constitutionally protected — and if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, I think Republicans with very extreme stances (like Barnette and Mastriano) could find themselves in trouble. That’s because even though Americans’ views on abortion are complicated, the vast majority of people want abortion to be legal in at least circumstances. Barnette and Mastriano support banning abortion with no exceptions. It’s hard to stress how far outside the mainstream that view is — and if abortion is on people’s minds in a state like Pennsylvania, those kinds of positions could become a real problem.

Definitely something that Geoffrey and I have thought about, Kaleigh. Maybe we’ll find out more soon! 👀