What Went Down During The May 17 Primary Elections

Unfortunately, we weren’t able to see in our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll whether more Americans were citing abortion as a top issue after the Supreme Court leak. We were out in the field when the draft opinion was leaked, but roughly 80 percent of our interviews had already been conducted by that point. Only 4 percent of respondents named it as one of the country’s top issues, including 6 percent of Republicans.

Now for a brief recap on a Republican primary where I’m awaiting results!

Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright is seeking reelection in Pennsylvania’s 8th District in what will likely be a tough race this November. His district, which has a partisan lean of R+8, will likely be competitive for both parties this fall. The question going into tonight, though, is who will Cartwright — the one Democrat in the state’s delegation to prevail last cycle in a Trump-won seat — face?

Both Jim Bognet, who lost to Cartwright by 4 percentage points in 2020, and Mike Marsicano, a former police officer and commercial pilot, are vying for the House seat (again). Going into tonight, my understanding is that Bognet (who has Trump’s endorsement and a slight fundraising advantage) is favored to win, but he’ll first have to get past Marsicano, who similarly touts himself as a Trump loyalist.

Of course, there’s some brief history going into tonight’s race that’s probably helpful to know in assessing the candidates: Bognet won the Republican primary in 2020, but still lost to Cartwright by nearly 4 percentage points. And that’s despite Trump himself winning the district that year. As Nathaniel pointed out on Monday, Cartwright’s win that year could be chalked up to his strength as a candidate or serve as a sign that Republicans need stronger general election candidates.

With regard to electability, I don’t think that the conventional wisdom has ever been that more moderate candidates do better in primaries. I think there’s a lot of evidence that they often don’t. The evidence suggests more moderate candidates (or candidates who are seen as more moderate by the voters) indeed do better in general elections. I think that holds, but to a lesser degree than it once did.

We know that candidate quality matters less as partisanship has become a stronger force in politics and state-level debates have become nationalized. So I do think Barnette and Mastriano would do worse in the general than more moderate candidates. That also doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll lose in an environment where Biden is underwater by 14 points.