FiveThirtyEight
Alex Samuels

As Jacob wrote earlier, for Ohio Democrats, one of the biggest races to watch is in the 11th District where incumbent U.S. Rep. Shontel Brown is locked in a rematch against progressive challenger Nina Turner, a former surrogate for Sen. Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaigns. Turner is challenging Brown again after losing to her by roughly 5 percentage points in last year’s special election. And, last night, Turner picked up a notable endorsement from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. For what it’s worth, though, Brown has the backing of many establishment Democrats — including President Biden. And heading into election night’s home stretch, Brown had a fundraising edge and more outside spending on her side, according to Roll Call. Somewhat shockingly, Brown has another leg up: the support of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Currently, Brown has a large lead over Turner — but only 17 percent of the vote is in.


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