FiveThirtyEight
Jacob Rubashkin

In 2016 when Houchin last ran, she was initially seen as a top-tier candidate alongside state Attorney General Greg Zoeller, but when Hollingsworth moved into the district from Tennessee and spent a then-astounding $1.8 million of his own money in the primary she wasn’t able to hold on and lost by 9 points. In 2022 there was a sense among Republicans in the district that it was her time, and that seems to be bearing out in the results thus far. If she wins the primary she’ll almost certainly win the general. This used to be a competitive district — Democrats even had it on their Red-to-Blue list in 2016! – but no longer.


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