What Went Down During Ohio’s And Indiana’s Primary Elections

Unlike in the Texas primaries, where Trump’s endorsements were relatively tame, tonight’s primaries will give us the opportunity to see how Trump’s endorsement can (or can’t) move the needle in a race where it actually matters. That race is, of course, the Ohio Senate Republican primary.

A little over two weeks ago, Trump endorsed writer and venture capitalist J.D. Vance, and at first blush, this has clearly helped Vance. In the most recent poll of the race, conducted by the Trafalgar Group, Vance was in the lead at 26 percent, while state Sen. Matt Dolan was in second at 22 percent. Other polls taken after the endorsement, from Fox News and Emerson College, also had Vance in the lead and former state Treasurer Josh Mandel second, though one poll from Blueprint Polling had Dolan (18 percent) and Vance (17 percent) essentially tied.

That’s notable because it’s a far cry from how Vance started this year, when he languished in fifth place in most polls. But Trump’s endorsement isn’t a silver bullet either. After all, Vance’s lead in the polls isn’t that large, meaning it’s entirely possible that Mandel, Dolan or another candidate may slip through with a last-minute win.

This endorsement is really the only one in today’s primaries where Trump is taking a risk, though. His other endorsements in Indiana and Ohio follow the same formula as his previous ones — pick a bunch of incumbents in safe seats, watch them win by big margins and then claim some of the credit. In fact, of the 17 congressional candidates Trump has endorsed for today’s primaries, 14 are incumbents, and eight are running unopposed, as you can see in the table below.

So, suffice it to say, even if Vance doesn’t pull through, Trump can still expect lots of victories for his chosen candidates in Indiana and Ohio. I’ll be tracking all that and more tonight.