FiveThirtyEight
Jacob Rubashkin

A Rematch In Ohio’s 11th Where The Roles Are Now Flipped

Most of the excitement in tonight’s Indiana and Ohio primaries will be on the Republican side. But one Democratic contest is definitely worth watching: the rematch between former state Sen. Nina Turner and now-Rep. Shontel Brown in Ohio’s 11th District.

Last November, in the race to replace then-Rep. Marcia Fudge after she joined Biden’s Cabinet, Brown scored a minor upset against Turner in the Cleveland-based district — yet another fight between the establishment and progressive wings of the Democratic Party.

Turner, a prominent Bernie Sanders surrogate in the 2016 and 2020 presidential primaries, ran a fiercely progressive campaign in support of Medicare for All and the Green New Deal. She had an early lead, too, but Brown, who was supported by Fudge and the Congressional Black Caucus, had practically erased it by the end of the campaign.

The two women are now facing off once again for a rematch, but Brown has a lot of advantages heading into round two, including the explicit support of Biden. And while Turner still has support from Sanders and the progressive group Our Revolution, which she used to lead, now that she’s running against an incumbent she hasn’t received the same degree of support from progressives in Washington, D.C. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez did endorse Turner late on Monday, but the Congressional Progressive Caucus, which backed Turner last time around, is now supporting Brown, for instance.

A Turner win would be a shot in the arm for a progressive movement that has struggled to put electoral or policy victories on the board for the past year. But considering Turner wasn’t able to win when she had massive advantages in fundraising and name recognition last year, it’ll be even harder for her now, as she hasn’t raised nearly as much money or commanded the same amount of media attention.

This time, it’ll be Turner, not Brown, looking to pull off the upset.


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