Welcome
Welcome to the beginning of the 2022 primary season! Sorry, Texas. We know you technically kicked things off in March, but now is when things really start to heat up. Case in point: From now until July, there will be a primary every single week except one. And you best believe we at FiveThirtyEight we’ll be live-blogging *most of them.
Tonight our attention is focused on Ohio and Indiana. In particular, we’re paying attention to Ohio’s Senate race — especially the GOP primary, which as Nathaniel wrote on Monday is undoubtedly a test of Trump’s continued influence but a win for Trumpism probably no matter what.
Seven candidates are running in that race, and the big question tonight is whether Trump’s endorsed candidate, J.D. Vance, will be able to eke out a victory after jumping ahead in the polls following the endorsement. As Jean will tell you later on, this is really the only endorsement where Trump is taking a risk tonight. But that’s not all we’re tracking. We’ll also be keeping a close eye on a number of competitive House races in both Indiana and Ohio. On that note, we’ll also be keeping track of how different types of candidates do tonight — from women running for office to progressive Democrats to Republicans who believe Trump’s “Big Lie,” or that the 2020 election was illegitimate.
The primaries might not get as much attention as the general election, but remember, this is where the parties wage some of their biggest fights, as most states and districts aren’t actually competitive come November. So tonight, we’ll get a better understanding of what the future of the Republican and Democratic parties will look like — or at least what it will look like in Ohio and Indiana. As always, thanks for following along, and if you have any questions, ping us @538politics and I’ll try to get your question answered on the live blog!