What Went Down During Ohio’s And Indiana’s Primary Elections

And with that, the beginning of the heart of primary season is pretty much done and dusted, with most high-profile races called in Indiana and Ohio. In the day’s marquee contest, J.D. Vance won the Republican primary for Senate in Ohio, leading Josh Mandel by about 8 points as of 10:15 p.m. Eastern. Vance had struggled to some extent throughout the primary campaign until former President Donald Trump endorsed him about two and a half weeks before the election. But with that boost in support, Vance managed to get out ahead of his rivals in a sizable candidate field that featured five notable contenders. Now Vance will be favored in the general election against Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan. But that wasn’t the only race we were watching!

In Ohio’s 11th District, Rep. Shontel Brown maintains a strong lead over Nina Turner, a prominent Bernie Sanders surrogate in 2016 and 2020. So far, Brown leads with roughly 65 percent of the vote, compared with Turner’s 35 percent. This district leans heavily Democratic too, so whoever wins here will be a clear favorite in November.

And in Ohio’s 13th District, Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert still maintains a small lead over her primary opponents. While the race hasn’t been called yet, ABC News has Gilbert leading with about 28 percent of the vote; she’s followed closely by attorney and accountant Greg Wheeler, who’s netted 24 percent of the vote. The winner of the GOP primary will face state Rep. Emilia Sykes, who stepped down from her position as minority leader to run for Congress this fall. The district in its current form is more favorable to Democrats than previous iterations but still leans Republican.

Over in Ohio’s 7th District Republican primary, Trump-backed Max Miller easily won the GOP nomination with around 70 percent of the vote. He might’ve faced Republican Rep. Bob Gibbs here, but Gibbs withdrew from the race just as early voting was starting. Instead, Miller is now positioned to win the general election in this red-leaning seat.

In Ohio’s 9th District, Republicans have a great shot at ousting longtime Democrat Marcy Kaptur, whose seat was redrawn into one that would have narrowly voted for Trump. But GOP primary voters may have given Kaptur a much-needed break. The Republican currently clinging to a narrow lead in the primary is J.R. Majewksi, an Air Force veteran most known for painting his lawn into a giant Trump sign and for his links to the QAnon conspiracy theory. Majewksi was also in D.C. on Jan. 6, 2021. He’s sitting at 36 percent of the vote, ahead of state Sen. Theresa Gavarone (33 percent) and state Rep. Craig Riedel (27 percent), both of whom are more traditional candidates and would match up better against Kaptur.

In Indiana’s 1st District, Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green is declaring victory in the GOP primary even though the race hasn’t been called yet. ABC News has Green leading the field with 49 percent, and her nearest opponent, Blair Milo, is back at 18 percent. So Green looks like a good bet to clinch the nod. She’ll face an uphill climb against freshman Democrat Frank Mrvan, but this is a district Republicans see as trending in their direction.

And in Indiana’s 9th District, state Sen. Erin Houchin won the GOP nomination to succeed Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, winning 37 percent of the vote to former Rep. Mike Sodrel’s 26 percent and veteran Stu Barnes-Israel’s 21 percent.

Thanks again for following along! If there are any big developments in these races overnight, we’ll be sure to post an update in the morning.

Based on how things are shaping up in Indiana and Ohio tonight, denying the legitimacy of the 2020 election wasn’t a guaranteed election-winner among GOP primaries, but it certainly didn’t hurt. Both Vance and Miller, two candidates who clearly echoed Trump’s claims of election fraud, won their respective nominations. Incumbent Republicans who voted not to certify the election also enjoyed the expected support tonight. And while some of the most extreme Big Lie candidates didn’t gain traction, it likely had more to do with fundraising than voters rejecting this type of rhetoric.

It’s also worth stepping back to recognize how unprecedented it is that we even have to track this trait at all. Think about the fact that calling into question the results of a democratic election more than a year and a half after its conclusion is such a common position among legitimate, primary-winning Republican candidates that I spent the entire night only looking at races where Big Lie candidates were running. And I’ll be spending the rest of the primaries and midterms continuing to track this. It’s just wild to think that we’re even in a place where that’s possible.

Overall, the women competing tonight in both Indiana and Ohio, Democratic and Republican, have done pretty well. But just because a party is nominating more women doesn’t necessarily mean they’re prioritizing gender equality in their ranks.

It’s important to look at whether women will run in “hopeless seats” in November, which are seats where the district strongly favors the other party’s candidate. There’s plenty of evidence that in previous decades, women were more often nominated to hopeless seats than men (especially Republican women). Investment in women happens when parties support women for more competitive (or safe) seats. For the women winning tonight, Democratic and Republican, there’s a mix of both.