FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

Sarah, DeWine got the win, but finishing below 50 percent as an incumbent — he’s at 47 percent right now — is a very weak performance. DeWine was aided by the fact that he didn’t really get a top-tier challenger. On paper, Renacci, who lost the 2018 Senate race, might have been the candidate, but it just never came together for him. Moreover, the populist grassroots campaign of Joe Blystone split the opposition to DeWine — Renacci and Blystone have 50 percent of the vote between the two of them.

Jacob Rubashkin

The Associated Press has called the GOP primary in Indiana’s 9th District for state Sen. Erin Houchin. She defeats former Rep. Mike Sodrel in her second congressional run.

Geoffrey Skelley

Monica, that’s a great point that often gets missed. Even if the suburbs have shifted toward Democrats in many major metropolitan areas, they still host a ton of Republican voters. Just look at the primary results tonight for the Ohio GOP Senate race and you see that Vance finished first in some well-known suburban counties, like Delaware, north of Columbus, or Butler, north of Cincinnati.


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