FiveThirtyEight
Jean Yi

Vance’s lead has only grown throughout the night — and if he is indeed the victor, he likely has Trump to thank. Max Miller in the 7th District, another non-incumbent, won his primary, meaning that nine out of Trump’s 12 endorsements for federal office have won their races tonight. Warren Davidson in the 8th has almost 80 percent of the vote with 22 percent reporting and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert has a seven-point lead with 21 percent reporting. A good night for Trump’s candidates — but of course, we knew he was largely picking easy winners anyway.

Monica Potts

Amelia, yes, that could make a difference, especially in purple, highly competitive districts. But, like Kaleigh, I do see a lot of Democratic voters expressing frustration, since they have been voting for their party out of support for protecting abortion rights and it doesn’t seem to have translated into policy. Also, as you noted earlier, it could just be seen as an abstract issue people would rather avoid until it affects their lives in a dramatic way, and I don’t know if we’ll see that by November. It’s been settled law for so long, people tend not to think about it until it personally affects them.

Kaleigh Rogers

I also wonder if Democrats will really be that energized since they already voted in a Democratic-majority Congress that could have enshrined Roe as the law of the land at some point sooner than now.


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