What Went Down During Ohio’s And Indiana’s Primary Elections

Yeah, what I wonder about, Monica, is whether this could shake up races in purple states. Because we’re not talking about a 15-week abortion ban, which I think would be easier for people to shrug off. Moreover, anti-abortion legislators are not including the exemptions that used to be standard in abortion bans — for rape, incest, life of the mother. That could make a difference for voters who maybe haven’t been as concerned about abortion rights previously.

The results aren’t final yet, obviously, but it’s worth noting that the late polls got quite close to the actual results in the GOP primary for Ohio Senate. In the last two polls of the race, from Trafalgar and Emerson College, Vance averaged 25 percent, Mandel averaged 21.5 percent, Dolan averaged 20 percent, Gibbons averaged 13.5 percent and Timken averaged 6.5 percent. The results right now are Vance 31 percent, Mandel 25 percent, Dolan 22 percent, Gibbons 12 percent and Timken 7 percent. Not bad for a race where the early polls were mostly spammy internals!

We don’t yet know who will win the GOP Senate primary in Ohio, but one person who won’t win is investment banker Mike Gibbons. And if you went to sleep in March, that might surprise you, because Gibbons used his vast wealth to power himself to a polling lead and frontrunner status at what seemed like the exact right time.

But Trump’s endorsement of J.D. Vance likely derailed whatever momentum he had, and he’s currently sitting at a disappointing 12 percent, good for fourth place. (For comparison, Gibbons won 32 percent of the vote in the 2018 GOP Senate primary in Ohio.)