What Went Down During Ohio’s And Indiana’s Primary Elections

I disagree, Nathaniel. I don’t think you can avoid Roe being a major issue in the midterms if it’s overturned. But it’s a galvanizing issue on both sides, and it could just as easily bring out religious-right voters who maybe weren’t super engaged on, say, election integrity, as it will bring out Democrats. So whether it would change the outcome is a real question mark for me.

We are now up to 49 percent of the expected vote reporting in Ohio’s Republican Senate primary, where Vance continues to lead. He now sits at about 31 percent as Election Day votes have leaned a bit more his way than early voting. Mandel’s vote share has ticked up a bit too — he now sits at about 25 percent — while Dolan is back in third with roughly 22 percent. Vance is winning by doing well in most every part of the state, as he leads in most counties and is in second in most places where he doesn’t lead. With such a fragmented vote across five high-profile candidates (and seven candidates in total), that’s been good enough to put Vance in a position to win. Hard to not think Trump’s endorsement did the job, too, considering the relatively slim margins involved.

Where things stand in Ohio’s GOP primary for Senate

I’m honestly not sure, Sarah. I think, in large part, the midterm cake is already baked, due to the simple fact that Democrats hold the White House and the party in the White House tends to do badly in midterms. But if Roe v. Wade is indeed overturned, it could galvanize some Democrats who might have otherwise stayed home to vote, perhaps raising Democrats’ floor a little bit. I think a big wild card is whether the Supreme Court’s decision (which presumably will get handed down in June or thereabouts) will still be at the forefront of voters’ minds come October and November.