What Went Down During Ohio’s And Indiana’s Primary Elections

We are now up to 49 percent of the expected vote reporting in Ohio’s Republican Senate primary, where Vance continues to lead. He now sits at about 31 percent as Election Day votes have leaned a bit more his way than early voting. Mandel’s vote share has ticked up a bit too — he now sits at about 25 percent — while Dolan is back in third with roughly 22 percent. Vance is winning by doing well in most every part of the state, as he leads in most counties and is in second in most places where he doesn’t lead. With such a fragmented vote across five high-profile candidates (and seven candidates in total), that’s been good enough to put Vance in a position to win. Hard to not think Trump’s endorsement did the job, too, considering the relatively slim margins involved.

Where things stand in Ohio’s GOP primary for Senate

I’m honestly not sure, Sarah. I think, in large part, the midterm cake is already baked, due to the simple fact that Democrats hold the White House and the party in the White House tends to do badly in midterms. But if Roe v. Wade is indeed overturned, it could galvanize some Democrats who might have otherwise stayed home to vote, perhaps raising Democrats’ floor a little bit. I think a big wild card is whether the Supreme Court’s decision (which presumably will get handed down in June or thereabouts) will still be at the forefront of voters’ minds come October and November.

At the risk of repeating what I said in the chat, I think a ruling that overturns Roe could be bad news for Republicans because completely banning abortion is highly, highly unpopular. That said, I think people will have to actually experience what it’s like to live in a country where abortion is illegal in many states for the ruling to have a big political impact, and I’m not sure how fully that reality will sink in before the midterms.