What Went Down During Ohio’s And Indiana’s Primary Elections

I’m honestly not sure, Sarah. I think, in large part, the midterm cake is already baked, due to the simple fact that Democrats hold the White House and the party in the White House tends to do badly in midterms. But if Roe v. Wade is indeed overturned, it could galvanize some Democrats who might have otherwise stayed home to vote, perhaps raising Democrats’ floor a little bit. I think a big wild card is whether the Supreme Court’s decision (which presumably will get handed down in June or thereabouts) will still be at the forefront of voters’ minds come October and November.

At the risk of repeating what I said in the chat, I think a ruling that overturns Roe could be bad news for Republicans because completely banning abortion is highly, highly unpopular. That said, I think people will have to actually experience what it’s like to live in a country where abortion is illegal in many states for the ruling to have a big political impact, and I’m not sure how fully that reality will sink in before the midterms.

Today was obviously a very big news day — and not just because of tonight’s primaries. I am, of course, referring to the leaked draft Supreme Court opinion that Politico obtained late Monday.

Amelia, Alex, Nathaniel, Geoffrey and I talked about this earlier today, but what repercussions do you all think the court overturning Roe would have for the upcoming midterm elections?