FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Important pattern emerging in the Ohio Senate race: Vance is doing better with election day ballots across the state. This may reflect the fact that Trump endorsed Vance somewhat late in the race, so many early voters may not have had that information. Or it could be because Trumpier Republicans are less likely to vote early or absentee.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

I think you brought this up earlier, Alex, but it’s interesting with Miller to see someone coming straight out of Trumpworld into a campaign of their own. Obviously that’s happened with previous presidential campaign staff, but with Trump it seems especially noteworthy because it’s essentially carrying his mantle forward. I wonder how many more of these candidacies we’ll see.

Jacob Rubashkin

In Indiana’s 9th District, state Sen. Erin Houchin is maintaining her lead of 11 points over former Rep. Mike Sodrel. Veteran Stu Barnes-Israel is further back. There’s still about 20 percent of the vote still out, but it’s looking pretty good for Houchin, whose best areas like Harrison County still have a lot more vote to report.


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