FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson Monica Potts Nathaniel Rakich Geoffrey Skelley
That's a Wrap!

Tonight was another jam-packed primary night, with eight states voting: Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma and Utah hosted their primaries, Mississippi and South Carolina held runoff elections, and Nebraska hosted a special election that was a lot closer than we anticipated, although ABC News has projected that the Republican, Mike Flood, will win.

One of the big stories going into tonight, though, wasn’t former President Trump’s influence — it was just how much Democrats meddled in GOP races, elevating the candidacies of more extreme GOP candidates in the hopes that they’d be easier to defeat in the general election.

In the Illinois Republican gubernatorial primary, Democrats got their preferred candidate, as state Sen. Darren Bailey easily won. The thought was that Bailey, as the more conservative candidate in the race, would face a steep uphill battle against incumbent Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker, given Illinois’s blue hue. But Democrats might later regret having backed Bailey as much as they did.

In Colorado, meanwhile, this strategy didn’t pay off for Democrats. Neither state Rep. Ron Hanks in the GOP Senate primary nor businessman Greg Lopez in the GOP gubernatorial primary ultimately prevailed. Nor did Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters, who was arguably the highest-profile election denier running in Colorado. Peters was banned from managing the elections in her home county, but still sought the Republican nomination for secretary of state. (She lost handily to former Jefferson County Clerk Pam Anderson, who accepts the 2020 election result.)

On that note, some of the night’s biggest election deniers, like Peters, Hanks and Lopez, did not win their primaries, but by our count, 15 candidates who either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election still won their Republican primaries tonight.

Finally, another big story going into tonight was the potential number of incumbents who could find themselves on the chopping block. For instance, there were two incumbent-versus-incumbent battles in Illinois tonight thanks to redistricting, and in the Democratic-leaning 6th District, it was Democratic Rep. Sean Casten who ultimately prevailed, adding another loss to progressives’ record with Rep. Marie Newman’s defeat. (It should be noted, however, that progressives easily won in the new Illinois 3rd, an unexpected result, and their preferred candidate looks likely to prevail in Illinois’s 1st, as well.) Meanwhile in the Republican primary in Illinois’s 15th District, the Trump-backed Rep. Mary Miller handily defeated Rep. Rodney Davis.

It wasn’t just because of redistricting, though, that incumbents were in danger. Most notably in Mississippi’s runoffs, Rep. Michael Guest faced a strong challenge from Michael Cassidy, who launched a bid against Guest for his vote to create a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Guest ultimately prevailed tonight, but the same cannot be said of Rep. Steven Palazzo, who had been embroiled in scandal. Palazzo lost to Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell.

Here are a few other key races we were watching tonight that have not yet been called:

  • In Oklahoma’s 2nd District Republican primary, we have most of the votes, but things are still too close to make a final projection about which two candidates will advance to an August runoff from this extremely crowded race. State Rep. Avery Frix leads with nearly 15 percent, followed by former state Sen. Josh Brecheen with about 14 percent and Muskogee Police Chief Johnny Teehee with 13 percent.
  • In Illinois’s 7th District, incumbent Rep. Danny Davis was fending off a challenge from Kina Collins, who positioned herself as the more progressive candidate. But the race was close: With 71 percent of the expected vote reporting, Davis was leading Collins, 52 percent to 46 percent.
  • The race was much closer in Illinois’s 11th District Republican primary, where former Trump administration official Catalina Lauf had about 29 percent of the vote, barely leading a crowded field of six total candidates, with about half of the vote in. The winner of the primary will aim to unseat the Democratic incumbent, Rep. Bill Foster.
  • Finally, the Republican primaries in Illinois’s 13th and 14 Districts remain too close to call. The race in the 13th is especially close, with nonprofit president Regan Deering slightly ahead of former federal prosecutor Jesse Reising, 35 percent to 33 percent, with 60 percent of the expected vote counted. Whoever wins will face former Biden administration staffer Nikki Budzinski in the general election. Meanwhile in the 14th, Kendall County Board Chair Scott Gryder has more of a sizable lead over Kendall County GOP Chair Jim Marter, 31 percent to 24 percent, with 74 percent of the expected vote in.
Nathaniel Rakich

Here’s one last look at how all the election deniers and questioners on today’s ballots fared.
How Big Lie supporters are doing tonight

Senate, House, gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in Republican primaries in Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, as of 11:17 p.m. Eastern

CANDIDATE OFFICE Big Lie Position % REPORTING VOTE SHARE STATUS
Ron Hanks CO Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 82% 44.8% ✗ Lost
Greg Lopez CO Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 82 46.7 ✗ Lost
Tina Peters CO SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 81 27.0 ✗ Lost
Jennifer Qualteri CO-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 40 100.0 ✓ Won
Lauren Boebert* CO-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 64.4 ✓ Won
Ken Buck* CO-04 ❓Raised doubts 91 74.8 ✓ Won
Robert Lewis CO-04 ❓Raised doubts 91 25.2 ✗ Lost
Doug Lamborn* CO-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 83 49.7 ✓ Won
Dave Williams CO-05 ❓Raised doubts 83 31.6 ✗ Lost
Rebecca Keltie CO-05 ❓Raised doubts 83 12.6 ✗ Lost
Erik Aadland CO-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 88 47.9 ✓ Won
Laurel Imer CO-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 88 15.7 ✗ Lost
Lori A. Saine CO-08 ❓Raised doubts 59 19.9 ✗ Lost
Peggy Hubbard IL Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 71 24.1 Trailing
Matthew “Matt” Dubiel IL Sen. ❓Raised doubts 71 12.7 Trailing
Robert “Bobby” Piton IL Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 71 9.1 Trailing
Jimmy Lee Tillman II IL Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 71 5.0 Trailing
Darren Bailey IL Gov. ❓Raised doubts 80 55.0 ✓ Won
Gary Rabine IL Gov. ❓Raised doubts 80 6.1 ✗ Lost
David Shestokas IL AG ❓Raised doubts 69 21.4 ✗ Lost
Eric Carlson IL-01 ❓Raised doubts 68 40.6 Leading
Geno Young IL-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 68 14.5 Trailing
Ashley Ramos IL-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 54 27.8 Trailing
Niki Conforti IL-06 ❓Raised doubts 77 11.5 Trailing
Scott R. Kaspar IL-06 ❓Raised doubts 77 6.9 Trailing
Robert “Rob” Cruz IL-06 ❓Raised doubts 77 5.8 Trailing
Chad Koppie IL-08 🚫 Denied legitimacy 60 13.2 Trailing
Catalina Lauf IL-11 ❓Raised doubts 56 28.9 Leading
Mark Joseph Carroll IL-11 ❓Raised doubts 56 21.1 Trailing
Susan L. Hathaway-Altman IL-11 ❓Raised doubts 56 12.3 Trailing
Mike Bost* IL-12 🚫 Denied legitimacy 4 100.0 ✓ Won
Terry Martin IL-13 ❓Raised doubts 56 8.6 Trailing
James T. “Jim” Marter IL-14 🚫 Denied legitimacy 74 24.0 Trailing
Jack Lombardi II IL-14 🚫 Denied legitimacy 74 14.2 Trailing
Jaime Milton IL-14 🚫 Denied legitimacy 74 10.2 Trailing
Mary Miller* IL-15 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 57.6 ✓ Won
Darin LaHood* IL-16 ❓Raised doubts 76 66.3 ✓ Won
Michael Rebresh IL-16 🚫 Denied legitimacy 76 8.2 ✗ Lost
Lee Zeldin NY Gov. ❓Raised doubts 44 43.6 ✓ Won
Andrew Giuliani NY Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 44 23.0 ✗ Lost
Markwayne Mullin OK Sen. (special) 🚫 Denied legitimacy 96 43.8 Leading
Jackson Lahmeyer OK Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 96 26.4 ✗ Lost
T.W. Shannon OK Sen. (special) 🚫 Denied legitimacy 96 17.4 Trailing
Nathan Dahm OK Sen. (special) 🚫 Denied legitimacy 96 12.0 Trailing
Luke Holland OK Sen. (special) ❓Raised doubts 96 11.2 Trailing
Joan Farr OK Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 96 5.8 ✗ Lost
Scott Pruitt OK Sen. (special) 🚫 Denied legitimacy 96 5.0 Trailing
Adam Holley OK Sen. (special) 🚫 Denied legitimacy 96 0.5 Trailing
Mark Sherwood OK Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 97 13.3 ✗ Lost
Avery Frix OK-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 14.7 Leading
Johnny Teehee OK-02 ❓Raised doubts 87 13.0 Trailing
John Bennett OK-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 11.3 Trailing
Wes Nofire OK-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 6.3 Trailing
David Derby OK-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 5.5 Trailing
Dustin Roberts OK-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 4.9 Trailing
Pamela Gordon OK-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 3.0 Trailing
Frank D. Lucas* OK-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 61.1 ✓ Won
Wade Burleson OK-03 ❓Raised doubts 59 30.6 ✗ Lost
Tom Cole* OK-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 64 69.8 ✓ Won
James Taylor OK-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 64 27.0 ✗ Lost
Stephanie Bice* OK-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 68.3 ✓ Won
Chris Stewart* UT-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 84 72.1 ✓ Won
Burgess Owens* UT-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 56 60.4 ✓ Won

*Incumbent.

Candidates marked as having “denied legitimacy” of the 2020 election either explicitly said Donald Trump’s loss or the 2020 election itself was illegitimate or, if an elected official, took legal measures to try and overturn the election. Candidates marked as “raised doubts” have questioned the fairness of the 2020 election or made references to “election integrity” but have not explicitly said the election or Trump’s loss was illegitimate.

Sources: News reports, campaigns, ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

The Associated Press has called the Democratic primary in Illinois’s 17th District for Eric Sorensen. The former meteorologist is hoping for a sunny outlook in the general election against Republican Esther Joy King, but he’ll be facing heavy headwinds in this Republican-leaning national environment.

Sarah Frostenson

Well, as we get ready to shutter down the live blog, there’s one less race that’s hanging in suspense. ABC News reports that Markwayne Mullin and T.W. Shannon are projected to advance to a runoff in the Republican primary in Oklahoma’s special election for the Senate.

Zoha Qamar

And we’re set with Trump’s endorsees for today. While all six may have won, none were particularly tight or unpredictable races, with five incumbents and one rare case of massive cross-party funding. Tonight’s results bring the winning tally of Trump-endorsed Senate, House and governor candidates to 116 out of 123 races. Among nonincumbents only, it’s 19 out of 25.
How Trump’s endorsees are doing tonight

Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump and their results in Republican primaries and runoffs in Colorado, Illinois, Mississippi, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, as of 10:56 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Office % Reporting Vote Share Status
Lauren Boebert* CO-03 97% 64.3% ✓ Won
Darren Bailey IL Gov. 77 55.0 ✓ Won
Mary Miller* IL-15 99 57.4 ✓ Won
Kevin Stitt* OK Gov. 94 69.0 ✓ Won
Frank D. Lucas* OK-03 59 61.1 ✓ Won
Mike Lee* UT Sen. 68 60.6 ✓ Won

*Incumbent.

Sources: DonaldJTrump.com, news reports, ABC News

Geoffrey Skelley

ABC News reports that state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer has won the GOP primary in Colorado’s 8th District. She will face state Rep. Yadira Caraveo in November in this swingy new seat.

Geoffrey Skelley

More of the vote has come in slowly from Nebraska’s special election for its 1st District, and Republican Mike Flood’s narrow lead has grown to about 2 points, 51 percent to 49 percent, over Democrat Patty Pansing Brooks. There is still some vote outstanding, but it’s probably not going to be enough for Pansing Brooks to pull the upset. Although, if the result is close to where it is now that would represent a strong night for Democrats in a district that Trump won 54 percent to 43 percent in 2020.

Meredith Conroy

Even as more results trickle in, we still don’t know the outcome of a few key races where progressive-backed candidates are running. In Illinois’s 7th District, Kina Collins — who has support from Justice Dems, Sunrise Movement and Indivisible — is trailing Biden-backed incumbent, Danny Davis, 46 percent to 51 percent, with 65 percent of the expected vote reporting. In Illinois’s 17th District, the Indivisible and Our Revolution endorsed candidate, Litesa Wallace, is in second place with 21 percent of the vote, while meteorologist Eric Sorensen is in first place with 40 percent of the vote and 42 percent of the expected vote reporting. Jonathan Jackson is leading by 9 points in Illinois’s 1st District, with 76 percent of the expected vote reporting. Progressive- and EMILY’s List-endorsed candidate Marie Newman has lost in Illinois’s 6th District, but Delia Ramirez’s win in Illinois’s 3rd District is a big win for the Progressive Caucus.
How progressives are doing tonight

Senate, House and governor candidates endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Sen. Bernie Sanders or the Sunrise Movement in Democratic primaries and runoffs in Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah, as of 10:55 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Office % Reporting Vote Share Status
Joe Neguse* CO-02 81% 100.0% ✓ Won
Jonathan L. Jackson IL-01 76 28.7 Leading
Delia Ramirez IL-03 75 65.5 ✓ Won
Marie Newman* IL-06 79 29.0 ✗ Lost
Kina Collins IL-07 71 45.8 Trailing
Junaid Ahmed IL-08 45 27.9 ✗ Lost
Litesa Wallace IL-17 49 20.9 Trailing
Jumaane D. Williams NY Gov. 69 20.0 ✗ Lost

*Incumbent.

Sources: Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, PCCC, the Sunrise Movement, Twitter, news reports, ABC News

Monica Potts

With 84 percent of the expected vote in, ABC News is reporting that Erik Aadland is projected to win the Republican primary in Colorado’s 7th District. He will face state Sen. Brittany Pettersen in the fall.

Meredith Conroy

As I wrote earlier tonight, female candidates arguably get a small boost in political environments where “women’s issues” are top of mind, largely because they are seen as more competent on those issues than men. Of course, whether renewed attention to abortion rights is helping women tonight is difficult to know, but it’s something to keep an eye on throughout this primary season and in November. Thus far in primaries, the GOP continues to lag behind Democrats when it comes to nominating women, but that’s typical. Perhaps more interesting is that the GOP is lagging behind their 2020 numbers — according to the Center for American Women in Politics, Republican women are 18 percent of their party’s House nominees compared with 23 percent in 2020, and 7 percent of their Senate nominees compared with 26 percent in 2020. Tonight, although their overall win record is low, in at least one key race a Republican woman did well. As Maggie covered, Esther Joy King is the projected winner in Illinois’s 17th District, where she will get to run against a Democrat in an open primary, thanks to a retirement. And Republicans will nominate Heidi Ganahl for Colorado governor, to face favored incumbent Jared Polis. In Illinois’s 11th District, Catalina Lauf is leading, as is Regan Deering in Illinois’s 13th District, however, according to Cook Political Report, both of these districts favor Democrats.
How Republican women are doing tonight

Women running for Senate, House and governor and their results in Republican primaries and runoffs in Colorado, Illinois, Mississippi, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, as of 10:43 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Office % Reporting Vote Share Status
Heidi Ganahl CO Gov. 80% 53.1% ✓ Won
Jennifer Qualteri CO-01 40 100.0 ✓ Won
Lauren Boebert* CO-03 95 64.1 ✓ Won
Rebecca Keltie CO-05 83 12.6 ✗ Lost
Laurel Imer CO-07 84 15.6 Trailing
Barbara Kirkmeyer CO-08 53 40.9 Leading
Jan Kulmann CO-08 53 22.8 Trailing
Lori A. Saine CO-08 53 19.6 Trailing
Kathy Salvi IL Sen. 60 30.8 Leading
Peggy Hubbard IL Sen. 60 23.7 Trailing
Philanise White IL-01 67 5.7 Trailing
Ashley Ramos IL-02 46 28.8 Trailing
Malgorzata McGonigal IL-05 59 44.7 Trailing
Niki Conforti IL-06 67 10.8 Trailing
Catherine A. O’Shea IL-06 67 9.9 Trailing
Karen Kolodziej IL-08 54 17.7 Trailing
Catalina Lauf IL-11 49 28.7 Leading
Susan L. Hathaway-Altman IL-11 49 12.3 Trailing
Cassandra Tanner Miller IL-11 49 7.2 Trailing
Andrea Heeg IL-11 49 7.0 Trailing
Regan Deering IL-13 55 35.3 Leading
Jaime Milton IL-14 64 10.3 Trailing
Mary Miller* IL-15 95 57.1 ✓ Won
JoAnne Guillemette IL-16 59 13.1 ✗ Lost
Esther Joy King IL-17 53 71.2 ✓ Won
Joan Farr OK Sen. 61 5.8 ✗ Lost
Laura Moreno OK Sen. (special) 61 1.8 Trailing
Jessica Jean Garrison OK Sen. (special) 61 1.7 Trailing
Moira McCabe OK Gov. 61 3.3 ✗ Lost
Pamela Gordon OK-02 87 3.0 Trailing
Rhonda Hopkins OK-02 87 1.7 Trailing
Stephanie Bice* OK-05 49 67.8 ✓ Won
Subrina Banks OK-05 49 32.2 ✗ Lost
Becky Edwards UT Sen. 61 32.9 ✗ Lost
Ally Isom UT Sen. 61 8.4 ✗ Lost
Tina Cannon UT-01 54 14.9 ✗ Lost
Erin Rider UT-02 56 32.8 ✗ Lost

*Incumbent.

Sources: Center for American Women and Politics, ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

ABC News is reporting that Rep. Lee Zeldin is the projected winner of the GOP nomination for governor of New York. Andrew Giuliani didn’t do all that well in the end.
Latest count in New York’s GOP primary for governor

Results of New York’s Republican primary for governor, as of 10:41 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Lee Zeldin 133,467 42.6%
Andrew Giuliani 74,269 23.7
Rob Astorino 59,625 19.0
Harry Wilson 45,834 14.6

35% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

Interestingly, it looks like the most successful Republican primary challenges in Utah tonight were from the left.

Nathaniel Rakich

ABC News is also reporting that Heidi Ganahl is projected to be the Republican nominee for Colorado governor. It’s quite notable that the more moderate candidate has won every statewide Republican primary in Colorado tonight: for governor, Senate and secretary of state. The GOP’s November hopes in Colorado are still alive, at least for now.

Geoffrey Skelley

ABC News is reporting that Republican Rep. Blake Moore has won renomination in the Republican primary for Utah’s 1st District. With a little over half the vote in, he’s at 60 percent support.

Nathaniel Rakich

It’s official: ABC News is reporting that Mary Miller is the projected winner in the Republican primary for Illinois’s 15th District.

Monica Potts

Finally, some more vote counts are in from Illinois’s 11th District Republican primary, with almost half of the expected vote reporting. Lauf is maintaining a slim and steady lead, 29 percent to Evans’s 23 percent. In third place is Mark Carroll with 21 percent. Lauf came into the race as a favorite. The winner will face Democratic incumbent Bill Foster.

Alex Samuels

And in Illinois’s 1st District, Jackson still maintains a sizable lead over his closest opponent, Dowell: 29 to 20 percent with 68 percent of the expected vote in. To be clear, the race still hasn’t been called, but it’s likely that South Siders will decide this race and elect a representative who can serve as a champion to the Black community in Congress. The Republican primary is still in flux, too, but candidates Eric Carlson, Philanise White, Jeffrey Regnier and Geno Young are vying to represent their party this November. That said, this is a heavily Democratic district so I would bet that whoever wins the Democratic nod tonight (likely Jackson) will become the eventual representative for this seat.
Latest count in Illinois’s 1st District Democratic primary

Results of the Democratic primary for Illinois’s 1st Congressional District, as of 10:22 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Jonathan L. Jackson 17,248 28.6%
Pat Dowell 11,854 19.6
Karin Norington-Reaves 8,198 13.6
Jacqueline “Jacqui” Collins 7,441 12.3
Chris Butler 3,181 5.3
Jahmal Cole 2,958 4.9
Jonathan T. Swain 2,010 3.3
Charise A. Williams 1,261 2.1
Michael A. Thompson Jr. 1,246 2.1
Cassandra Goodrum 1,051 1.7
Marcus Lewis 694 1.1
Nykea Pippion McGriff 686 1.1
Kirby Birgans 645 1.1
Robert A. Palmer 619 1.0
Terre Layng Rosner 585 1.0
Ameena Matthews 504 0.8
Steven DeJoie 181 0.3

68% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

Ten candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election have already won Republican primaries tonight. However, some of the highest-profile Big Lie believers — like Hanks and Peters in Colorado — have lost.
How Big Lie supporters are doing tonight

Senate, House, gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in Republican primaries in Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, as of 10:30 p.m. Eastern

CANDIDATE OFFICE Big Lie Position % REPORTING VOTE SHARE STATUS
Ron Hanks CO Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 80% 44.6% ✗ Lost
Greg Lopez CO Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 80 46.9 ✗ Lost
Tina Peters CO SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 79 26.7 ✗ Lost
Jennifer Qualteri CO-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 40 100.0 ✓ Won
Lauren Boebert* CO-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 91 63.6 ✓ Won
Ken Buck* CO-04 ❓Raised doubts 80 75.2 ✓ Won
Robert Lewis CO-04 ❓Raised doubts 80 24.8 ✗ Lost
Doug Lamborn* CO-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 83 49.7 ✓ Won
Dave Williams CO-05 ❓Raised doubts 83 31.6 ✗ Lost
Rebecca Keltie CO-05 ❓Raised doubts 83 12.6 ✗ Lost
Erik Aadland CO-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 84 48.0 Leading
Laurel Imer CO-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 84 15.6 Trailing
Lori A. Saine CO-08 ❓Raised doubts 53 19.6 Trailing
Peggy Hubbard IL Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 56 23.5 Trailing
Matthew “Matt” Dubiel IL Sen. ❓Raised doubts 56 12.7 Trailing
Robert “Bobby” Piton IL Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 56 8.9 Trailing
Jimmy Lee Tillman II IL Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 56 4.9 Trailing
Darren Bailey IL Gov. ❓Raised doubts 63 54.9 ✓ Won
Gary Rabine IL Gov. ❓Raised doubts 63 6.2 ✗ Lost
David Shestokas IL AG ❓Raised doubts 55 21.5 Trailing
Eric Carlson IL-01 ❓Raised doubts 65 40.5 Leading
Geno Young IL-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 65 14.4 Trailing
Ashley Ramos IL-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 45 28.9 Trailing
Niki Conforti IL-06 ❓Raised doubts 61 10.4 Trailing
Scott R. Kaspar IL-06 ❓Raised doubts 61 6.8 Trailing
Robert “Rob” Cruz IL-06 ❓Raised doubts 61 5.8 Trailing
Chad Koppie IL-08 🚫 Denied legitimacy 52 13.3 Trailing
Catalina Lauf IL-11 ❓Raised doubts 46 29.1 Leading
Mark Joseph Carroll IL-11 ❓Raised doubts 46 21.0 Trailing
Susan L. Hathaway-Altman IL-11 ❓Raised doubts 46 12.4 Trailing
Mike Bost* IL-12 🚫 Denied legitimacy 4 100.0 ✓ Won
Terry Martin IL-13 ❓Raised doubts 54 8.7 Trailing
James T. “Jim” Marter IL-14 🚫 Denied legitimacy 61 23.4 Trailing
Jack Lombardi II IL-14 🚫 Denied legitimacy 61 15.1 Trailing
Jaime Milton IL-14 🚫 Denied legitimacy 61 10.5 Trailing
Mary Miller* IL-15 🚫 Denied legitimacy 83 57.6 Leading
Darin LaHood* IL-16 ❓Raised doubts 56 63.7 ✓ Won
Michael Rebresh IL-16 🚫 Denied legitimacy 56 8.8 ✗ Lost
Lee Zeldin NY Gov. ❓Raised doubts 28 42.9 Leading
Andrew Giuliani NY Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 28 24.2 Trailing
Markwayne Mullin OK Sen. (special) 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 44.5 Leading
Jackson Lahmeyer OK Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 26.5 ✗ Lost
T.W. Shannon OK Sen. (special) 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 17.0 Trailing
Nathan Dahm OK Sen. (special) 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 11.8 Trailing
Luke Holland OK Sen. (special) ❓Raised doubts 59 11.1 Trailing
Joan Farr OK Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 5.8 ✗ Lost
Scott Pruitt OK Sen. (special) 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 5.0 Trailing
Adam Holley OK Sen. (special) 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 0.5 Trailing
Mark Sherwood OK Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 13.5 ✗ Lost
Avery Frix OK-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 14.7 Leading
Johnny Teehee OK-02 ❓Raised doubts 87 13.0 Trailing
John Bennett OK-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 11.3 Trailing
Wes Nofire OK-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 6.3 Trailing
David Derby OK-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 5.5 Trailing
Dustin Roberts OK-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 4.9 Trailing
Pamela Gordon OK-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 3.0 Trailing
Frank D. Lucas* OK-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 58 61.1 ✓ Won
Wade Burleson OK-03 ❓Raised doubts 58 30.8 ✗ Lost
Tom Cole* OK-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 63 69.7 ✓ Won
James Taylor OK-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 63 27.1 ✗ Lost
Stephanie Bice* OK-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 45 67.7 ✓ Won
Chris Stewart* UT-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 47 64.2 Leading
Burgess Owens* UT-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 56 60.4 Leading

*Incumbent.

Candidates marked as having “denied legitimacy” of the 2020 election either explicitly said Donald Trump’s loss or the 2020 election itself was illegitimate or, if an elected official, took legal measures to try and overturn the election. Candidates marked as “raised doubts” have questioned the fairness of the 2020 election or made references to “election integrity” but have not explicitly said the election or Trump’s loss was illegitimate.

Sources: News reports, campaigns, ABC News

Monica Potts

In Colorado’s 7th District, we’re still stuck at 84 percent of the expected vote, but Aadland’s lead seems pretty solid, with 48 percent to Reichert’s 36 percent.
Latest count in Colorado’s 7th District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for Colorado’s 7th Congressional District, as of 10:27 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Erik Aadland 33,945 48.0%
Tim Reichert 25,779 36.4
Laurel Imer 11,056 15.6

84% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News

Geoffrey Skelley

In Utah’s GOP primary for Senate, the AP has projected that Sen. Mike Lee has won renomination. Still, he has 57 percent of the vote with 55 percent of the expected vote reporting, with the comparably moderate challengers — former state Rep. Becky Edwards and businesswoman Ally Isom — taking 43 percent so far. That’s interesting because in theory some of Lee’s opposition in the GOP primary might break for independent challenger Evan McMullin in the general election. McMullin won the endorsement of the Utah Democrats to set up a mostly head-to-head race in Utah.

Nathaniel Rakich

We have yet to get a projection, but Davis has conceded to Miller in Illinois’s 15th District. Davis is the third incumbent to go down to defeat tonight; meanwhile, the MAGA wing solidifies its hold on the GOP (Trump endorsed Miller).

Maggie Koerth

There’s now 49 percent reporting in the Republican primary for Illinois’s 14th District and Scott Gryder continues to establish his lead with 30.9 percent.
Latest count in Illinois’s 14th District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for Illinois’s 14th Congressional District, as of 10:25 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Scott R. Gryder 8,695 30.9%
James T. “Jim” Marter 6,615 23.5
Mike Koolidge 5,519 19.6
Jack Lombardi II 4,424 15.7
Jaime Milton 2,930 10.4

49% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

We have 61 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for Illinois’s 6th District, and Pekau is still leading Grasso, although things are a smidge tighter than they were when I last checked in on this race. That being said, Pekau has 41 percent of the vote, and Grasso has 26 percent, so it’s not that close.

Maggie Koerth

ABC News reports that Esther Joy King is projected to win the Republican primary in Illinois’s 17th District. She has 68.7 percent of the vote at 34 percent reporting.

Alex Samuels

The Associated Press has just called the Democratic primary in Illinois’s 8th District for incumbent Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi. He currently leads his opponent, Junaid Ahmed, 72 percent to 28 percent. It’s unclear which Republican Krishnamoorthi will face this fall: Chris Dargis, Peter Kopsaftis, Karen Kolodziej, Chad Koppie and Phillip Wood are vying for the GOP slot in November, but this is a pretty solidly Democratic district so I would bet that the race is very much Krishnamoorthi’s to lose.

Geoffrey Skelley

We’ve got 24 percent of the expected vote in from Utah’s 1st District, and so far the conservative revolt against GOP Rep. Blake Moore hasn’t fully materialized. He’s at 61 percent, while retired intelligence officer Andrew Badger has 26 percent and former Morgan County Councilmember Tina Cannon has 14 percent.

Nathaniel Rakich

With 76 percent of the expected vote reporting in Illinois’s 15th District, Edison has now come into closer alignment with the AP; Edison now says Miller leads Davis 57 percent to 43 percent. AP says Miller leads 58 percent to 42 percent.

Monica Potts

With 84 percent of the expected vote in, Aadland is holding onto his lead in the race for Colorado’s 7th District, 48 to 36 percent against Reichert. Republicans hope to flip this blue seat to red, and will face Democratic state Sen. Brittany Pettersen, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Nathaniel Rakich

With 33 percent of the expected vote reporting, Eric Sorensen is nearly doubling up Litesa Wallace for the Democratic nomination in Illinois’s 17th District. This is basically the only swing district left in Illinois, with a partisan lean of D+4.
Latest count in Illinois’s 17th District Democratic primary

Results of the Democratic primary for Illinois’s 17th Congressional District, as of 10:16 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Eric Sorensen 7,654 39.1%
Litesa Wallace 4,094 20.9
Jonathan Klarer Logemann 2,892 14.8
Angie Normoyle 2,673 13.7
Marsha Williams 1,294 6.6
Jacqueline McGowan 961 4.9

33% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News

Geoffrey Skelley

And there it is, the Election Day vote has put the Republican Flood into the lead in the special election for Nebraska’s 1st District. He’s now up by 1 point over Pansing Brooks, the Democrat. It’s unclear how many votes are really outstanding here, considering it’s a low-turnout primary. But the trend is fairly clear.

Geoffrey Skelley

Kirkmeyer’s lead in the GOP primary for Colorado’s 8th District has slimmed, as she’s now down to 41 percent. But her next-closest competitor is Thornton Mayor Jan Kulmann, who has 23 percent, and then Saine at 20 percent. So even if Kirkmeyer loses a bit more ground, she might win out with a small plurality thanks to the crowded field.

Maggie Koerth

In Illinois, the 14th and 17th Districts are continuing in their stolid, predictable fashion. In the 17th District, 30 percent of the vote is in and Esther Joy King is up 68.9 percent. In the 14th District, Scott Gryder is still ahead at 30.1 percent and 40 percent reporting.

Meredith Conroy

With Newman’s projected loss to Casten in Illinois’s 6th District, it’s a good time to check in with tonight’s progressive-backed candidates. In Illinois’s 1st District, Sen. Sanders endorsed candidate, Jonathan Jackson, is leading, and in Illinois’s 3rd District, Delia Ramirez is the projected winner. In Illinois’s 7th District, the Sanders-backed progressive, Kina Collins, is trailing the Biden-backed incumbent, Danny Davis, but it’s close. And in Illinois’s 17th District, Litesa Wallace, who is endorsed by Indivisible and Our Revolution, is trailing meteorologist Eric Sorensen, but with only 33 percent of the expected vote reporting. In Illinois’s 8th District, Junaid Ahmed is trailing the incumbent, Raja Krishnamoorthi (Krishnamoorthi has raised over $6 million), and in the race for governor in New York, the Our Revolution endorsed Jumaane Williams has lost.
How progressives are doing tonight

Senate, House and governor candidates endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Sen. Bernie Sanders or the Sunrise Movement in Democratic primaries and runoffs in Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah, as of 10:14 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Office % Reporting Vote Share Status
Joe Neguse* CO-02 72% 100.0% ✓ Won
Jonathan L. Jackson IL-01 67 28.8 Leading
Delia Ramirez IL-03 67 65.4 ✓ Won
Marie Newman* IL-06 64 32.0 ✗ Lost
Kina Collins IL-07 65 46.1 Trailing
Junaid Ahmed IL-08 41 28.1 Trailing
Litesa Wallace IL-17 33 20.9 Trailing
Jumaane D. Williams NY Gov. 54 21.0 ✗ Lost

*Incumbent.

Sources: Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, PCCC, the Sunrise Movement, Twitter, news reports, ABC News

Monica Potts

We’ve got about a quarter of the expected vote in Illinois’s 11th District Republican primary, and Lauf maintains her lead, 29 percent to 25 percent of her nearest competitor, Jerry Evans, a Christian musician who founded a music school.

Nathaniel Rakich

With 20 percent of the expected vote in, Lee Zeldin has about a 15-point lead over Andrew Giuliani for the Republican nomination for New York governor. That said, whoever wins here is largely academic; Hochul will almost certainly defeat him.

Nathaniel Rakich

With 80 percent of the expected vote in, Ganahl leads Lopez 53 percent to 47 percent in the GOP primary for Colorado governor. Edison via ABC News has yet to issue a projection here, but the Associated Press has called the race for Ganahl.

Galen Druke

ABC News is reporting that Nikki Budzinski, a former Biden staffer, is projected to with the Democratic primary in Illinois’s 13th District. This is a D+7 district that will likely be competitive in the fall. The GOP primary is way off from being called. With 38 percent of the expected vote in, nonprofit president Regan Deering is leading former federal prosecutor Jesse Reising, 36 percent to 34 percent.

Geoffrey Skelley

The AP has projected that Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell has defeated Republican Rep. Steven Palazzo in the GOP runoff for Mississippi’s 4th District. Ezell will be almost certain to win in November and become the district’s new congressman.

Geoffrey Skelley

As some more Election Day votes have come in from Nebraska’s 1st District special election, Republicans have made up some ground. Pansing Brooks, the Democrat, now leads Flood, the Republican, by about 5 points with 42 percent reporting. Most of the outstanding vote is in fairly red rural counties, too.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

We’re just up to 50 percent of the expected vote in the Republican primary for Illinois’s 6th District, and Pekau continues to lead Grasso by a sizable amount. Pekau has 44 percent of the vote and Grasso has 24 percent. The other six candidates are much further behind. Whoever wins will go up against Casten in the fall.

Zoha Qamar

Now that ABC News reports that incumbent Lauren Boebert (CO-03) is projected to win her re-election primary, we now know the fates of four of Trump’s six endorsees on ballots tonight. Barring any surprises in Colorado, Boebert will likely face off against Adam Frisch, a local businessman and local politician, this fall. Still to come are results for incumbents Rep. Mary Miller (IL-15), who is leading, and Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, where polls only just now closed.

Here’s where all of Trump’s choices stand at present:

How Trump’s endorsees are doing tonight

Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump and their results in Republican primaries and runoffs in Colorado, Illinois, Mississippi, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, as of 10:04 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Office % Reporting Vote Share Status
Lauren Boebert* CO-03 77% 64.4% ✓ Won
Darren Bailey IL Gov. 48 53.8 ✓ Won
Mary Miller* IL-15 51 52.7 Leading
Kevin Stitt* OK Gov. 54 68.7 ✓ Won
Frank D. Lucas* OK-03 57 61.0 ✓ Won
Mike Lee* UT Sen. 0 79.5 Leading

*Incumbent.

Sources: DonaldJTrump.com, news reports, ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

ABC News is reporting that incumbent Rep. Doug Lamborn is projected to win Colorado’s 5th District Republican primary. Scratch one off the list of incumbents in danger tonight.
Latest count in Colorado’s 5th District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for Colorado’s 5th Congressional District, as of 9:35 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Doug Lamborn* 34,910 49.9%
Dave Williams 21,934 31.3
Rebecca Keltie 8,858 12.7
Andrew Heaton 4,301 6.1

*Incumbent

80% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News

Geoffrey Skelley

The AP has projected that businessman Joe O’Dea will defeat state Rep. Ron Hanks in the GOP primary for Senate in Colorado. This result will help Republicans keep the Centennial State potentially in play come November if the environment is friendly enough for them. Democrats spent millions trying to help Hanks in the knowledge that the state legislator might be too toxic to win even in an advantageous year for Republicans.

Nathaniel Rakich

The Associated Press has just called the Democratic primary for New York lieutenant governor for Antonio Delgado, and it’s easy to see why: He currently leads Ana María Archila 60 percent to 26 percent. As a result, Hochul will get her preferred running mate, and Hochul and Delgado will very likely be Albany’s 1-2 for the next four years.

Geoffrey Skelley

ABC News reports that Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert is projected to win the GOP primary in Colorado’s 3rd District, defeating state Sen. Don Coram. With about three-fourths of the expected vote reporting, she leads 64 percent to 36 percent.

Nathaniel Rakich

All of a sudden, we’re up to 80 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for Colorado’s 5th District. And it’s a familiar story for Rep. Doug Lamborn: The Republican primary electorate doesn’t love him, but no one seems to be quite able to beat him.
Latest count in Colorado’s 5th District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for Colorado’s 5th Congressional District, as of 9:35 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Doug Lamborn* 34,910 49.9%
Dave Williams 21,934 31.3
Rebecca Keltie 8,858 12.7
Andrew Heaton 4,301 6.1

*Incumbent

80% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News

Geoffrey Skelley

Well, after surviving a real scare in the June 7 primary, GOP Rep. Michael Guest has come back with a vengeance in the Republican runoff in Mississippi’s 3rd District. The AP just projected Guest will win, as he leads former Navy pilot Michael Cassidy by about 32 points right now.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

ABC News reports that Casten is projected to win the Democratic primary in Illinois’s 6th District. I have to admit, I thought this would be a closer one! But Casten seems to have won handily.

Geoffrey Skelley

In the GOP race in Oklahoma’s 2nd District, it’s quite possible no single GOP candidate will clear 15 percent. Oklahoma uses a runoff system, so a second round is guaranteed at this point. Currently, state Rep. Avery Frix leads the splintered field with just under 15 percent, followed by former state Sen. Josh Brecheen with 14 percent. Muskogee Police Chief Johnny Teehee is close behind with about 13 percent. About 86 percent of the expected vote as reported, so there’s enough left to change things.
Latest count in Oklahoma’s 2nd District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for Oklahoma’s 2nd Congressional District, as of 9:50 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Avery Frix 11,234 14.8%
Josh Brecheen 10,470 13.8
Johnny Teehee 9,659 12.8
Guy Barker 8,389 11.1
John Bennett 8,317 11.0
Marty Quinn 5,587 7.4
Wes Nofire 4,781 6.3
David Derby 4,168 5.5
Chris Schiller 4,063 5.4
Dustin Roberts 3,703 4.9
Pamela Gordon 2,331 3.1
Rhonda Hopkins 1,264 1.7
Clint Johnson 1,110 1.5
Erick P. Wyatt 605 0.8

86% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

AP is reporting that Pam Anderson is projected to win the Republican nomination for secretary of state in Colorado. This means someone who accepts the legitimacy of the 2020 election is guaranteed to administer the 2024 election in the state — either Anderson or incumbent Democrat Jena Griswold.

Latest count in Colorado’s GOP primary for secretary of state

Results of Colorado’s Republican primary for secretary of state, as of 9:49 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Pam Anderson 176,583 44.7%
Mike O’Donnell 113,458 28.7
Tina Peters 104,933 26.6

79% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News


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