FiveThirtyEight
Monica Potts

Still watching Illinois’s 11th, Lauf describes herself on her campaign website this way: “She is the daughter of a legal immigrant from Latin America and an Illinois-raised small businessman.” Alex has written about this before, but the Latino vote in the U.S. is big and diverse, and Trump’s anti-immigration and border control stances didn’t turn off conservative Latinos. In fact, Lauf has defended Trump’s immigration policies. While there was some movement of Latino voters toward Trump in 2020, the lurch wasn’t as big as initially thought. With 15 percent of the expected vote in, Lauf is slightly in the lead, with 29 percent of the vote.


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