Sarah, I think there’s a tendency to always say “it’s finally time people want to throw the bums out,” but I think a redistricting cycle is about the worst time to gauge that because more incumbents lose primaries than in any other year. Over the past 50 years, the only times 10 or more incumbents have lost in House primaries are in cycles ending in “2,” according to Brookings’s Vital Statistics on Congress — that is, when newly redistricted seats are contested.
