Well, Sarah, as I wrote in 2020, there are always more incumbent losses in redistricting years. Congresspeople get drawn into districts with other congresspeople. Sometimes they also get a bunch of new turf and effectively lose their incumbency advantage. But I think it’s notable that, in several of the districts where incumbents might lose tonight (Mississippi’s 3rd, Mississippi’s 4th, Illinois’s 7th), the district barely changed. So those would represent an unusually strong surge in anti-incumbent sentiment.
