Well in the district I’m watching, Sarah, the culprit is redistricting. Newman was drawn out of her district and had to pick another one to run in. But even though it seems like Newman should have something of a home-turf advantage — since 41 percent of the new 6th District are Newman constituents, versus 23 percent of Casten constituents — it’s not necessarily the case that Newman’s constituents support her, as she beat the incumbent back in 2020 to win the nomination for her seat. Lots of incumbency politics there!
