FiveThirtyEight
Meredith Conroy

Do Women’s Issues On The Ballot Help Women?

Tonight, I will be watching to see how women candidates are doing in their primaries. And now that the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade, there will likely be some renewed attention to women candidates this election cycle. On the Democratic side, EMILY’s List raises and spends tens of millions of dollars to help elect women who support abortion rights. And the group has endorsed several incumbents (Rep. Lauren Underwood, Rep. Marie Newman, Sen. Tammy Duckworth, Gov. Kathy Hochul) in tonight’s races, as well as women in open primaries: Nikki Budzinski, a former adviser to Gov. J.B. Pritzker, in Illinois’s 13th District, and state representative Delia Ramirez in Illinois’s 3rd District. The group has also endorsed state legislator Brittany Pettersen in Colorado’s 7th District and physician and state Rep. Yadira Caraveo in Colorado’s 8th District, both of whom are running unopposed.

Here are all the Democratic women running tonight whose races I’ll be watching:

How Democratic women are doing tonight

Women running for Senate, House and governor and their results in Democratic primaries and runoffs in Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah, as of 8:19 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Office % Reporting Vote Share Status
Tammy Duckworth* IL Sen. 3% 100.0% ✓ Won
Beverly Miles IL Gov. 3 5.6 Trailing
Karin Norington-Reaves IL-01 3 27.3 Leading
Pat Dowell IL-01 3 12.9 Trailing
Jacqueline “Jacqui” Collins IL-01 3 12.5 Trailing
Terre Layng Rosner IL-01 3 6.0 Trailing
Cassandra Goodrum IL-01 3 4.2 Trailing
Nykea Pippion McGriff IL-01 3 2.3 Trailing
Charise A. Williams IL-01 3 2.1 Trailing
Ameena Matthews IL-01 3 1.7 Trailing
Janice D. Schakowsky* IL-09 1 100.0 ✓ Won
Madison Horn OK Sen. 2 32.5 Leading
Jo Glenn OK Sen. 2 14.4 Trailing
Joy Hofmeister OK Gov. 2 66.9 Leading
Connie Johnson OK Gov. 2 33.1 Trailing
Krystle Matthews SC Sen. 11 57.7 Leading
Catherine Fleming Bruce SC Sen. 11 42.3 Trailing
Diana DeGette* CO-01 0 0.0
Soledad Sandoval Tafoya CO-03 0 0.0
Brittany Pettersen CO-07 0 0.0
Yadira Caraveo CO-08 0 0.0
Robin Kelly* IL-02 0 0.0
Delia Ramirez IL-03 0 0.0
Marie Newman* IL-06 0 0.0
Kina Collins IL-07 0 0.0
Nikki Budzinski IL-13 0 0.0
Lauren Underwood* IL-14 0 0.0 ✓ Won
Litesa Wallace IL-17 0 0.0
Angie Normoyle IL-17 0 0.0
Marsha Williams IL-17 0 0.0
Jacqueline McGowan IL-17 0 0.0
Kathy C. Hochul* NY Gov. 0 0.0

*Incumbent.

Sources: Center for American Women and Politics, ABC News

But notably, as Amelia and I wrote for the site last month, electing more women hardly means that Congress is more likely to pass legislation that gives women more access to abortions. After all, some of the staunchest opponents to abortion are women. For example, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America (formerly Susan B. Anthony List) was formed primarily to elect anti-abortion rights women, and in 2020 the group boasted about its record success. Its president, Marjorie Dannenfelser, had been among those leading the charge to overturn Roe.

And tonight, SBA Pro-Life America has thrown support behind several incumbent female Republican politicians on the ballot, such as Rep. Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s 3rd District, Rep. Mary Miller in Illinois’s 15th District and Rep. Stephanie Bice in Oklahoma’s 5th District. But the organization is investing in at least one open primary tonight, too — the one in Illinois’s 17th District. There, attorney Esther Joy King is facing insurance broker Charlie Helmick. This should be a competitive seat in November, too, as incumbent Rep. Cheri Bustos, a Democrat, is retiring. In addition to support from SBA Pro-Life America, King has been endorsed by several GOP women’s groups (E-PAC, VIEW PAC, Maggie’s List, and Winning For Women), as well as the National Republicam Congressional Committee. King lost to Bustos by about 4 points in 2020, but she has the backing of national Republicans heading into tonight, and she also substantially outraised the six candidates competing for the Democratic nomination.

To be sure, SBA Pro-Life America hasn’t endorsed all Republican women running tonight, but here’s a look at all the races with Republican women on the ballot that I’ll be watching tonight:

How Republican women are doing tonight

Women running for Senate, House and governor and their results in Republican primaries and runoffs in Colorado, Illinois, Mississippi, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, as of 8:19 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Office % Reporting Vote Share Status
Kathy Salvi IL Sen. 2% 46.3% Leading
Peggy Hubbard IL Sen. 2 16.1 Trailing
Philanise White IL-01 8 6.3 Trailing
Malgorzata McGonigal IL-05 2 54.1 Leading
Catalina Lauf IL-11 2 24.5 Trailing
Susan L. Hathaway-Altman IL-11 2 15.1 Trailing
Cassandra Tanner Miller IL-11 2 7.4 Trailing
Andrea Heeg IL-11 2 6.4 Trailing
Jaime Milton IL-14 6 11.4 Trailing
Joan Farr OK Sen. 5 5.8 Trailing
Laura Moreno OK Sen. (special) 5 1.8 Trailing
Jessica Jean Garrison OK Sen. (special) 5 1.6 Trailing
Moira McCabe OK Gov. 5 3.1 Trailing
Pamela Gordon OK-02 6 3.3 Trailing
Rhonda Hopkins OK-02 6 1.4 Trailing
Stephanie Bice* OK-05 6 73.8 Leading
Subrina Banks OK-05 6 26.2 Trailing
Heidi Ganahl CO Gov. 0 0.0
Jennifer Qualteri CO-01 0 0.0
Lauren Boebert* CO-03 0 0.0
Rebecca Keltie CO-05 0 0.0
Laurel Imer CO-07 0 0.0
Lori A. Saine CO-08 0 0.0
Jan Kulmann CO-08 0 0.0
Barbara Kirkmeyer CO-08 0 0.0
Ashley Ramos IL-02 0 0.0
Niki Conforti IL-06 0 0.0
Catherine A. O’Shea IL-06 0 0.0
Karen Kolodziej IL-08 0 0.0
Regan Deering IL-13 0 0.0
Mary Miller* IL-15 0 0.0
JoAnne Guillemette IL-16 0 0.0
Esther Joy King IL-17 0 0.0
Becky Edwards UT Sen. 0 0.0
Ally Isom UT Sen. 0 0.0
Tina Cannon UT-01 0 0.0
Erin Rider UT-02 0 0.0

*Incumbent.

Sources: Center for American Women and Politics, ABC News

How are Democratic and Republican women doing so far? According to the Center for American Women and Politics, women are 42 percent of Democratic House nominees, compared with 47 percent in 2020; and 27 percent of the party’s Senate nominees, compared with 36 percent in 2020. Meanwhile, Republican women are 18 percent of the GOP’s House nominees, compared with 23 percent in 2020; and 7 percent of the party’s Senate nominees, compared with 26 percent in 2020.


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