What Went Down In The New York Primaries

Today’s wins raised Trump’s probability of becoming the Republican nominee and preserved Clinton’s status as odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination. That means the probability of a matchup between the two of them in November rose, too. And in polls asking voters nationally about that hypothetical matchup, Clinton consistently is beating Trump, by an average of about 9 points. She has led Trump in each of the last 44 polls compiled by HuffPost Pollster, going back to mid-February. That’s one reason betting markets think the Democratic candidate has about a 74 percent chance of winning the White House. Kasich uses his consistent advantage over Clinton in hypothetical general-election polls to make the case for his nomination: General-election polls don’t tell us much before the candidates are set. They probably tell us more, though, about would-be candidates as well-known nationally as Trump and Clinton than they do about candidates with a lower national profile, like Kasich.