FiveThirtyEight
Clare Malone

Why was this primary-night speech different from all other primary-night speeches for Trump? Well, for one thing it was pretty short on invective. This is not to say that Trump wasn’t Trump — he walked to the podium to strains of Sinatra’s “New York New York,” and proceeded to dismantle his opponents, but not in the rambling manner we’ve seen before. Tonight, his words were, as they say in the business that Trump claims to disdain (politics), “on message.” “Senator Cruz is just about mathematically eliminated,” he said. “We’ve won close to 300 more delegates than Senator Cruz.” “It’s really nice to win the delegates with the votes. It’s really nice.” “It’s a crooked system, the system is rigged.” Trump’s team has been on a hiring spree of late, adding seasoned political operatives. It seems abundantly clear that since the campaign has been losing what you might think of as the “sub primary” — the hunt for second-ballot delegate allies if no candidate clinches the nomination with 1,237 votes on the first ballot in Cleveland — they are focusing on pointing out how unfair the Republican nominating process is. While he continues to win big with voters, Trump’s loss of delegates is a big problem — he’s losing second-ballot delegates to Cruz left and right, which could kill his candidacy in the increasing likelihood of a brokered convention. Trump rather surprisingly expressed sympathy for Bernie Sanders in his speech. “I am no fan of Bernie, but you watch him win, win, win,” Trump said, seeming to indicate that both men are victims of their respective party nominating systems.

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