What Went Down In The New York Primaries

The power of any one Republican voter to determine a delegate’s vote at the convention varies enormously by state and even by congressional district, as my colleague Harry Enten wrote last week.

Because we and everyone else get so laser-focused on the percentages, raw vote counts sometimes get forgotten about. But so far, there have been 1.2 million votes recorded from Democratic voters in New York, as compared with around 450,000 for Republicans. That gap may close some because New York City is over-reported relative to the rest of New York State. Still, while Trump is popular among Republicans in New York, he’s not that popular in the state overall, with Clinton having more than twice as many votes so far.

Alright, let’s break down the delegates. To my eye, there are only seven congressional districts where Trump appears in jeopardy of falling below 50 percent: the 7th, 10th, 12th, 13th, 20th, 21st, and 24th. It looks like he will definitely fall below 50 percent in the 10th and 12th. All others look clear. If that holds, Trump will claim between 88 and 93 of New York’s 95 delegates tonight.