What Went Down In The New York Primaries

Alright, let’s break down the delegates. To my eye, there are only seven congressional districts where Trump appears in jeopardy of falling below 50 percent: the 7th, 10th, 12th, 13th, 20th, 21st, and 24th. It looks like he will definitely fall below 50 percent in the 10th and 12th. All others look clear. If that holds, Trump will claim between 88 and 93 of New York’s 95 delegates tonight.

Recently, we’ve seen a slew of national polls showing Clinton and Sanders nearly tied. Those didn’t square in my mind with the statewide polls showing comfortable Clinton leads in states like California, New York and Pennsylvania. Well, it seems in New York that the statewide polls were nearly perfect. Our polling average showed Clinton with a 13.5 percentage point lead. Right now, she’s up 18 percentage points and that should fall a little bit as more of the vote outside the New York City metropolitan area is reported.

Speaking of betting, Nate, the markets see today’s results as a big win for Trump, whose probability of winning the Republican nomination is up to 68 percent from below 50 percent earlier this month, according to Predictwise. Bettors apparently expected a Clinton win of this magnitude; her nomination-winning probability has held steady at 92 percent.