What Went Down In The New York Primaries

Recently, we’ve seen a slew of national polls showing Clinton and Sanders nearly tied. Those didn’t square in my mind with the statewide polls showing comfortable Clinton leads in states like California, New York and Pennsylvania. Well, it seems in New York that the statewide polls were nearly perfect. Our polling average showed Clinton with a 13.5 percentage point lead. Right now, she’s up 18 percentage points and that should fall a little bit as more of the vote outside the New York City metropolitan area is reported.

Speaking of betting, Nate, the markets see today’s results as a big win for Trump, whose probability of winning the Republican nomination is up to 68 percent from below 50 percent earlier this month, according to Predictwise. Bettors apparently expected a Clinton win of this magnitude; her nomination-winning probability has held steady at 92 percent.

Much like Zephyr Teachout, the reform candidate who lost to Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the 2014 Democratic gubernatorial primary, Sanders appears likely to carry a majority of New York’s counties but still get blown out statewide.