FiveThirtyEight
David Wasserman

Much like Zephyr Teachout, the reform candidate who lost to Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the 2014 Democratic gubernatorial primary, Sanders appears likely to carry a majority of New York’s counties but still get blown out statewide.
Nate Silver

Clinton’s chances of becoming the next president are now 71.4 percent, according to Betfair, the highest she’s been at any point of the election cycle.
Julia Azari

Trump’s Sort-Of Old-School Ideology

Does trying to classify Trump’s ideology ever get old? Not for me! I was most struck by reading a chapter in John Gerring’s book, “Party Ideologies in America, 1828-1996,” about the Republicans before 1928, which he identifies as a “nationalist” period – trade protection as a move to bolster business and protect American industry. This was the party of William McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt – projecting national strength was tied up with a very specific view of masculinity. Aversion to “social disorder” was also a defining characteristic. This bygone form of nationalism was the best description I’ve seen of Trump. And yet, as we just saw in his victory address, this is still a candidacy with strong populist notes. He’s made a talking point of the idea that a legitimate party nominee should be one who wins the most votes – or at least some votes. Trump’s packed arenas contain much of the white-hot language that old-school Republicans worried about. At least until Theodore Roosevelt, also a New Yorker, left the party to appeal directly to voters on his own.

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