What Went Down In The New York Primaries

Cruz is doing very well in Orthodox Jewish communities (Borough Park, South Williamsburg, and Crown Heights). But because these neighborhoods are in three separate congressional districts, it’s possible Cruz could still wind up with ZERO delegates out of New York.

Clinton is currently holding a 60 percent to 40 percent lead over Sanders, but the gap should close as more votes come in. The reason is that there are still lots of western and upstate areas to report where Sanders is expected to do better. Still, she should win by double digits.

The Upshot’s cool model has Sanders eventually winning about 110 delegates in New York, which is well short of the 128 he’d need to keep up with his (increasingly difficult) path to a pledged delegate majority. Here’s what now we calculate as Sanders’s least-implausible path to 2,026 pledged delegates, assuming he earns 110 from New York tonight.

Sanders’s path to 2,026 is very challenging after his New York loss

STATE OR TERRITORY	NO. ELECTED DELEGATES	SANDERS’S PATH-TO-2026 PROJECTION	POPULAR VOTE MARGIN NEEDED TO REACH TARGET
California	475	280	Sanders	+18
Pennsylvania	189	103	Sanders	+9
New Jersey	126	69	Sanders	+10
Maryland	95	44	Clinton	+7
Indiana	83	49	Sanders	+18
Oregon	61	46	Sanders	+51
Puerto Rico	60	34	Sanders	+13
Connecticut	55	32	Sanders	+16
Kentucky	55	34	Sanders	+24
New Mexico	34	19	Sanders	+12
West Virginia	29	20	Sanders	+38
Rhode Island	24	16	Sanders	+33
Delaware	21	10	Clinton	+5
Montana	21	16	Sanders	+52
South Dakota	20	14	Sanders	+40
D.C.	20	9	Clinton	+10
North Dakota	18	14	Sanders	+56
Guam	7	4	Sanders	+14
Virgin Islands	7	4	Sanders	+14

After tonight, Sanders would have to win California by almost 20 points, and Pennsylvania and New Jersey by around 10 points, to eventually claim the majority of pledged delegates. Even though Sanders has made up ground with Clinton over the course of the campaign, results like those would be quite a shock.