FiveThirtyEight
Harry Enten

If you want an idea of why the exit polls were off on the Democratic side, look no further than the 15th district. The 15th, which is the most Hispanic in the state, is favoring Clinton by over 40 percentage points. The exit poll had Clinton winning Hispanics statewide by 18 percentage points.
Aaron Bycoffe

Nate Silver

It’s true that the Republican race has often defied momentum, and also that candidates usually get a boost in their home state that doesn’t always translate well across state borders. Nonetheless, with Trump potentially getting 60 percent of the vote or more in New York, polls showing him in the mid-40s in Pennsylvania and the other states set to vote next Tuesday seem a lot more plausible. Speaking of Pennsylvania, the Penguins beat the Rangers 3-1, dammit.

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