What Went Down In New York, Florida And Oklahoma’s Elections

The different time zones in Florida — most of the state is in the Eastern time zone but the panhandle is in the Central time zone — may have played a role in the confusion in the 2000 presidential election between Al Gore and George W. Bush. On some networks, the state was called for Gore before polls closed in Central time, and then of course it later flipped. It later became the subject of the Supreme Court case that ultimately stopped the state’s recount. Afterward, publications were more cautious about how quickly they called statewide results.

As I mentioned in my writeup about Florida, Webster also fits the classic mold of a vulnerable incumbent because he currently only represents about one-third of the 11th District.

One could argue (I did, FWIW) that Crist is playing a dangerous game by running again. If he wins tonight and loses this fall, he risked getting marked as a perennial candidate!

If Loomer beats Webster, that feels like shades of Lauren Boebert beating Scott Tipton in a Colorado GOP primary in 2020. Firebrand challenger catches longtime incumbent napping, chaos ensues.

We won’t get results in the Florida panhandle until polls close there, but I’ll be curious to see how Gaetz does. He was a major Trump supporter, and Donald Trump Jr. campaigned for him in Pensacola yesterday.

Nearly a third of the vote is in from the GOP primary for Florida’s 7th District, and Army veteran Cory Mills is cruising with 49 percent, well ahead of “ultra MAGA” state Rep. Anthony Sabatini at 21 percent. Mills made waves by running an ad earlier this cycle where he bragged about the crowd control munitions his company makes and their use against liberal protestors.

I mentioned earlier that during a candidates’ forum in Orlando last month, candidates running in multiple districts were asked whether they believed President Biden won the 2020 election. Twelve of the 14 Republican candidates on stage said “no.” That includes Calvin Wimbish, who is currently leading in the GOP primary for Florida’s 10th District. He’s among a handful of election deniers who are leading their races in the Sunshine State already tonight. Another candidate leading his primary tonight is Cory Mills in the 7th District. Mills wasn’t at the candidate’s forum, but when the Orlando Sentinel followed up with him afterwards, he said he didn’t think Biden was the legitimate president. Here’s how all the election denying candidates are faring so far:

Indeed, lots of votes in Florida, but no key projections yet 😉

Whew Florida is moving faster than I can type today, it seems. We’re already up to 70 percent (!!) of the vote counted in the state’s 23rd District and Moskowitz is maintaining a very healthy lead over Sorensen. The former currently leads 64 percent to 20 percent.

But I dunno, Meredith, about Fried’s odds of advancing out of this primary. With over 60 percent of the vote in, she’s substantially behind Crist:

Florida is one of 19 states that has never had a female governor. Fried has been highlighting this as she campaigns for the Democratic nomination in Florida, and also couching her bid within the larger context of women’s success in elections the last two cycles.

Galen discussed the key issues affecting Tuesday’s primary races on ABC News Live. He also touched on today’s Florida primaries, where Democrats will pick their nominee to run against Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.

We’ve practically achieved warp speed with these results! Up to about half the vote counted in the 15th District GOP primary, where Lee has extended her lead to 43 percent, compared to Stargel’s 24 percent. The 15th is an open seat because incumbent Rep. Scott Franklin is running in a different district post-redistricting, and Republicans are favored here because Trump would have carried the district by 3 points. But it could be quite competitive later in the decade.

Results are quickly coming in for Florida’s 10th District, too, where 10 Democrats are vying to replace the outgoing Rep. Val Demings, who opted to run for a seat in the U.S. Senate this year instead. With 52 percent of the expected vote in, progressive organizer and activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost leads state Sen. Randolph Bracy 31 percent to 28 percent. This should be an interesting race to watch, folks. While Bracy was once seen as a favorite, it’s not clear whether he can overcome 25-year-old Frost, who has been buoyed by a massive fundraising haul or endorsements from Massachusetts Rep. Ayanna Pressley and other notable progressives.

I’m watching the results in tonight’s Republican primary in Florida’s 1st District, currently represented by Matt Gaetz, who is the subject of an ongoing federal investigation for allegedly having sex with a 17-year-old. There was no polling before tonight and there are no early results yet, but he faces a serious challenge from former FedEx executive Mark Lombardo.

We have a sizable share of votes in for a few Trump endorsees. Incumbent Rep. John Rutherford in Florida’s 5th District is leading with 65 percent of the vote, with 99 percent of the expected vote reporting, while, as Nathaniel just noted, newcomer Anna Paulina Luna is leading with 80 percent reporting in the state’s 13th District. Here’s the full spread so far:

In the Republican primary for Florida’s 13th District, there’s already 74 percent of the vote counted!! (Pinellas County counts fast, y’all.) Anna Paulina Luna leads Kevin Hayslett just 39 percent to 38 percent, so it’s a close one, despite Luna having Trump’s endorsement. This is a likely Republican pickup in the fall; though Democrat Charlie Crist currently holds this seat, it went from a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+1 to R+12 in redistricting.

With 52 percent of the expected vote already reporting, incumbent Rep. Daniel Webster is leading the Republican primary in Florida’s 11th District. Webster currently has 52 percent of the vote, with far-right activist Laura Loomer sitting at 44 percent. Webster has held the seat in this region since 2017, but he’s been a politician much longer: He was first elected to the state House in 1980. Loomer, meanwhile, is a household name among the alt-right crowd. The 29-year-old made a name for herself as a vlogger who frequently harassed journalists and politicians, proselytized conspiracy theories, and was twice banned from Twitter for violating the platform’s policies when she posted racist and Islamophobic tweets too vile to publish here (suffice to say, she hashtagged some of the tweets with #ProudIslamophobe). Loomer also denies the legitimacy of the 2020 election, saying Trump won.

Loomer ran for office in 2020 and won the GOP nomination in Florida’s 21st District. She lost to the incumbent, Democrat Rep. Lois Frankel, but Loomer’s showing wasn’t awful – she earned 39 percent of the vote – and she’s actually outraised and outspent Webster in the primary race. Given the barn-red bona fides of the district she’s running in, if Loomer manages to beat Webster tonight, there’s a very good chance she’ll be heading to Congress.

Results are flying in from Florida, and in the Democratic primary for governor, Rep. Charlie Crist has opened up a commanding early lead over state Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried. With about one-third of the expected vote reporting, Crist leads 62 percent to 33 percent.

Florida was one of the last states to enact a new congressional map this redistricting cycle thanks to a protracted disagreement between Gov. Ron DeSantis and Republicans in the state Legislature.

At first, Republicans in both the state Senate and state House wanted to pass maps with only mild Republican biases in order to remain in compliance with the “fair districts” provisions of the Florida Constitution. But DeSantis pushed hard for an aggressive Republican gerrymander that, among other things, turned the predominantly Black and Democratic 5th District into a solid-red seat with a white majority. Eventually, the Legislature acceded to his demands despite fears that the map would be struck down in court. (Indeed, there is currently pending litigation over the map, but courts have allowed it to go into effect for at least 2022.)

The map contains 18 Republican-leaning seats, eight Democratic-leaning seats and just two highly competitive seats. That’s an increase of four Republican-leaning seats and a decrease of three highly competitive seats from the old map. Specifically, the map moves the Democratic-held 7th and 13th districts several points to the right, adds a new Republican-leaning seat (the 15th) thanks to population growth in Central Florida and (as mentioned) converts the 5th District (renumbered the 4th) to solid red. That, in turn, has set off competitive Republican primaries for all four seats today.

Second that, Nathaniel! We’re already have 50 percent of the expected vote in in Florida’s 23rd District. I’m monitoring the Democratic primary here, where six candidates are running to replace Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch in Florida’s 23rd District after Deutch announced his plans to resign from Congress to become the CEO of the American Jewish Committee.

Going into tonight, I expected Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz to have a significant lead over his other opponents because he had endorsement and fundraising edges over the second-highest fundraiser, Fort Lauderdale City Commissioner Ben Sorensen. Currently, Moskowitz has netted 61 percent of the vote versus Sorensen’s 22 percent.

We’ve already got about 10 percent of the vote in the GOP primary in Florida’s 15th District, and former Florida Secretary of State Laurel Lee is out front with 38 percent, followed by state Sen. Kelli Stargel with 24 percent.

Bless Florida, which is one of the fastest states in the nation when it comes to reporting election results. With 25 percent of the expected vote already reporting in Florida’s 4th District, state Sen. Aaron Bean leads Erick Aguilar in the GOP primary 68 percent to 24 percent. This is effectively the seat that replaced Democratic Rep. Al Lawson’s old predominantly Black district between Tallahassee and Jacksonville, which was eliminated in redistricting.

Florida has 11 notable primaries to monitor this evening, including a large number of competitive primaries in open House seats brought about by its tumultuous redistricting process:

• Governor: Democrats will choose either Rep. Charlie Crist or Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried to take on Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in what looks to be an uphill race for Democrats this fall. Crist is a former Republican governor and lost in 2014 as the Democratic nominee for governor, but he’s led in most polling and has had the financial upper hand over Fried, who is the only Democrat to win a statewide race since 2012.
• 1st District: In Florida’s panhandle, Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz faces potentially serious primary opposition in the wake of an ongoing federal investigation into whether he engaged in sexual activities with a 17-year-old girl and paid for women to cross state lines to have sex. Former FedEx executive Mark Lombardo has tried to use the scandal against Gaetz, running ads tying Gaetz’s investigation to his lone dissenting vote on a 2017 human trafficking bill signed into law by Trump.
• 4th District: Redistricting did away with a plurality-Black district in northern Florida, and this new R+15 seat situated around Jacksonville will probably elect a Republican in the fall. The GOP primary between state Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean and Navy veteran Erick Aguilar looks to favor Bean, who’s led in the polls. Aguilar has outraised Bean, but Bean’s allies have made up for this with more than $1 million in outside spending.
• 7th District: Redistricting shifted this seat, which sits north of Orlando, all the way from D+5 to R+14. Perhaps in anticipation of this, Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy retired in December, and the crowded GOP primary to succeed her appears to be a three-man race between Army veteran and businessman Cory Mills, state Rep. Anthony Sabatini and former Navy SEAL and Christian missionary Brady Duke. Mills and Sabatini have led in the polls, albeit only with voteshares in the low-to-mid 20s, while Duke has led the fundraising race.
• 10th District: There’s a crowded Democratic primary in this deep-blue seat following Rep. Val Demings’s decision to run for Senate. Gun-safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost may be the front-runner, as he’s raised the most money ($1.5 million) and has benefited from $1.4 million in outside spending support, which have given him the resources to highlight his progressive views and his multiethnic background. But the field is crowded and also includes state Sen. Randolph Bracy, pastor Terence Gray and two controversial blasts from the past in former Reps. Alan Grayson and Corrine Brown.
• 11th District: West of Orlando, the GOP primary for this R+19 seat features a contest between Rep. Daniel Webster and far-right activist Laura Loomer, who has called herself a “proud Islamophobe” and has been banned by multiple social media platforms. As an incumbent, Webster is favored, but we can’t rule out Loomer surprising him: Webster currently represents only about a third of this seat following redistricting, and Loomer has raised more money than he has.
• 13th District: Crist left this Tampa Bay-area seat behind to run for governor, and redistricting shifted it from R+1 to R+12, making the Republican primary the main contest to watch here. At one point, Air Force veteran Anna Paulina Luna looked to be the front-runner, as she’d given Crist a close race in 2020 and has Trump’s endorsement. But recent polling suggests attorney Kevin Hayslett could upend Luna in the primary, as he’s sought to present himself as the Trumpier of the two candidates in what has turned into a very expensive race.
• 15th District: This newly drawn R+7 seat east of Tampa could be competitive, but its crowded GOP primary will probably pick the district’s next member. Former Florida Secretary of State Laurel Lee may have emerged as the favorite over state Sen. Kelli Stargel and state Rep. Jackie Toledo. Both Lee and Stargel have received sizable outside support, as Lee’s side has played up her ties to DeSantis, who is popular among Republicans, while Stargel and her allies have tried to cast Lee as weak on election security.
• 20th District: Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is defending this deep-blue, plurality-Black seat after winning it in a January special election. But in the special election primary, she defeated former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness by just five votes, and now Holness is back for a rematch. This time, though, Cherfilus-McCormick has a huge financial edge and looks favored to retain the seat.
• 23rd District: This D+9 seat opened up after Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch announced he will resign this fall, and Democrats are now picking between Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz and Fort Lauderdale City Commissioner Ben Sorensen. Moskowitz looks to be favored based on his endorsements and his edge in the money race, both in terms of fundraising and outside support. Still, Sorensen has tried to paint Moskowitz as too chummy with DeSantis, who is anathema to Florida Democrats.
• 27th District: Democrats face an uphill battle against first-term Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar, who is Cuban American, in this heavily Latino district in Miami, but state Sen. Annette Taddeo and Miami Commissioner Ken Russell are fighting for the Democratic nomination in the hopes of springing an upset. Taddeo looks favored, as she had nearly twice as much money as Russell for the final stretch of the campaign and has racked up far more endorsements from Florida and national groups.

Apologies to voters in Florida and Oklahoma, but New York is where the action is tonight.

Due to redistricting, New York’s congressional primaries are a mess. New York Democrats tried to draw a map that was extremely advantageous to them, but the courts weren’t having it and instead had a nonpartisan expert draw the state’s map, scrambling the lines of many of New York’s districts. The new congressional map was approved just three months ago, forcing the state to split its primaries across two days.

There is perhaps no more dramatic of an example of this rescrambling than New York’s new 12th District, which combines Manhattan’s Upper East Side and Upper West Side, pitting longtime Democratic Reps. Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney against each other. Put another way, one incumbent is definitely losing in New York tonight, and as Nathaniel wrote earlier this week in his preview, it could be as many as five.

In short, there’s lots of action on the Democratic side tonight thanks to New York. Perhaps even more importantly, via special elections in New York’s 19th District and old 23rd District, we’re going to get two more data points on whether the national political environment has, indeed, shifted toward Democrats in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the constitutional right to abortion.

But we shouldn’t give short shrift to Florida or the runoffs in Oklahoma. In Florida, Democrats will select their nominee to take on Gov. Ron DeSantis in the fall. Florida is another state where redistricting has dramatically altered the playing field — although there, the courts allowed Republicans’ gerrymandered map to go into effect for at least 2022. As a result, there are 10 congressional primaries we’re watching there. In Oklahoma, meanwhile, the results of tonight’s runoff will likely determine who will succeed Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe in the Senate and who will be the next representative serving Oklahoma’s 2nd District.

OK! That’s it from me. And that’s, of course, just a quick rundown of some of the key highlights we’re watching tonight. There’s a lot more going on the live blog, and as always, thanks for following along, and if you have any questions, ping us @538politics and I’ll try to get your question answered on the live blog.