Believe it or not, the 2022 primary season is drawing to a close. After today, we have just two more primary Tuesdays before the main affair in November — and note we’ll just be live blogging the Sept. 13 primaries (sorry, Massachusetts!)
There weren’t too many surprises tonight. Longtime Democratic Rep. Jerrold Nadler had already pulled away from longtime Rep. Carolyn Maloney in the final polls of New York’s 12th District, and he ended up winning handily tonight. Meanwhile, in Florida, Rep. Charlie Crist easily bested state Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried in the Democratic primary for governor.
It’s true that the GOP primary in Florida’s 11th District was likely too close for comfort for Rep. Daniel Webster, as his primary challenger, far-right activist Laura Loomer, came within 7 percentage points of defeating him. As Nathaniel noted on the live blog, perhaps one of the more undercovered components of this primary season has been the number of close calls GOP incumbents have experienced this cycle. It’s not just the incumbents who have lost: Think Rep. Michael Guest in Mississippi’s 3rd District or Rep. David Valado in California’s 21st District. In New York’s 2nd District tonight, we also saw Rep. Andrew Garbarino win renomination with just 54 percent in the GOP primary. And in New York’s open 22nd District, Republican primary voters went with the Trumpier of the two candidates, Navy veteran Brandon Williams, which could create an opening for Democrats to win this D+2 district in the fall.
New York’s two special elections tonight in the old 19th District and the old 23rd District were also high on our radar, as they’re two more data points on whether the national political environment has indeed shifted toward Democrats in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the constitutional right to abortion. And while it’s still too early to know what the final margins will be in either election, it does seems as if these were both Democratic overperformances relative to the districts’ partisan lean. ABC News has projected that Democrat Pat Ryan will win in the 19th, and he currently leads Republican Marc Molinaro by 2 points. Meanwhile, in the 23rd, Republican Joseph Sempolinski won, but only by 2 points, which is underwhelming given the district’s R+15 partisan lean. Nathaniel will have a full article out on these elections as soon as we have final-ish numbers.
In Oklahoma’s runoffs, meanwhile, Rep. Markwayne Mullin won the GOP primary for U.S. Senate, so he is now heavily favored to fill the remainder of Sen. Jim Inhofe’s term, starting in January. Former state Sen. Josh Brecheen also defeated state Rep. Avery Frix in Mullin’s old seat, the 2nd District.
Here is the rundown on the other key races we were watching that weren’t called when we put the live blog to bed:
- In New York’s 10th District Democratic primary, former federal prosecutor Daniel Goldman leads state Assembly member Yuh-Line Niou 26 percent to 24 percent. The race hasn’t yet been projected, but it’d be a surprise if Goldman doesn’t win. Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones got pushed out of running for reelection around his old home base in Westchester County north of New York City, and his move to run in this Manhattan-Brooklyn district failed, as he’s running in third with 18 percent of the vote.
- In the Democratic primary for New York’s 22nd District, Navy veteran and 2020 candidate Francis Conole has a narrow lead, with 39 percent, over Dewitt Town Councilor Sarah Klee Hood, who has 35 percent. Conole was the favored candidate of Democratic leadership in Washington, D.C., and outspent Hood 7-to-1. The winner will face GOP nominee Brandon Williams, who defeated Steve Wells (the choice of GOP leadership in D.C.) by a 15-point margin.
- In the Republican primary for New York’s 23rd District, Nick Langworthy leads Carl Paladino 51 percent to 49 percent with an unknown number of ballots yet to count. Paladino was the Trumpier of the two candidates, with a long track record of racist and sexist comments. However, either candidate would be a lock to win in November in this solidly red seat.
