Looking at New York’s 19th District special election , we have just about full results from four counties, and things look to be incredibly close based on the trend in the Election Day vote. Ryan, the Democrat, is ahead 56 percent to 44 percent over Molinaro, the Republican. It’s looking like a battle of home base outperformances, too. In Ulster, where Ryan is county executive, he leads 65 percent to 35 percent, running ahead of Biden’s 60 percent to 39 percent showing in 2020. In Dutchess, where Molinaro is county executive, Molinaro and Ryan are running at about 50 percent apiece, a better GOP showing compared to 2020 when Biden carried Dutchess 54 percent to 44 percent. There’s still about one-quarter of the expected vote outstanding, though, so this race will continue to tighten. But how much will determine the outcome.
